Understanding your opponent's emergent behavior.

[Dave Aitel <dave () immunityinc com>]

Out of my window, every boat looks like a submarine. And if you listen
to war nerd <http://exiledonline.com/cat/war-nerd/>, in the near future
every boat WILL be a submarine, one way or the other. But in the
meantime, it's great if your opponents invest in surface vessels.

Likewise, I think this talk
<http://www.ted.com/talks/deborah_gordon_digs_ants.html> demonstrates
something useful, which is that it is quite hard to develop the emergent
behaviors for some simple ants. If you haven't watched it than you should.

Humans are more predictable. Mudge's talk at BlackHat demonstrated
something which is worth catching if you missed it. The idea (with some
evidence presented) is that hackers (aka, you) are finding ways to
manipulate the emergent behavior of their host systems - aka, they are
guiding entire economies into investing in technologies that don't work
(in this case, signature AV). 

So the question is: How do you discover emergent behavior and how do you
control it. Both are ... very hard problems. Look at that, you start a
perfectly respectable scientist and end up a macro-economist! :>

-dave
[1]
https://media.blackhat.com/bh-us-11/Zatko-Keynote/BlackHat-USA-2011-Peiter-Zatko-Keynote-Day2.mov
P.S. INFILTRATE 2012 <http://infiltratecon.com/cfp.html> talks are still
being accepted!

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