DMCA Notices from the RIAA

["Finney, George (Information Security Officer)" <gfinney () MAIL SMU EDU>]

All:

There have been a lot of threads on this list about the increase in DMCA notices at one time or another for the past 
several years.  Some months we seem to be inundated with DMCA notices while other months are relatively calm.  I've 
wondered for some time about figuring out a way of being able to compare how many DMCA notices we receive relative to 
what other institutions are seeing to be able to better understand whether increases in notices represent 1)increased 
attention from the RIAA and others 2) a failure of our IPS or PacketShapers to keep up or 3) increases in the volume of 
P2P on campus...or all of the above.

We hope we've found an easier way of getting an estimate.  The RIAA appears to use a sequential numbering system in its 
case tracking system. There is no way to tell what percentage of the cases represented in their case tracking actually 
lead to a generated DMCA notice.  Duplicates or false positives may account for some percentage of this figure.  
Judging by the number of duplicates and false positives that we actually receive, I would guess not.  In looking at the 
volume, however, I'd be willing to bet that each case number represents an individual DMCA notice.

[cid:image001.png@01CC55B4.8B69C220]

Using the sequential numbers as a framework, we can now estimate how many DMCA notices were sent on a monthly basis.  
Using these monthly numbers, we can take the number of DMCA notices that were received as a percentage of the figure as 
a whole, and come up with a window.  I will also say that our numbers are based on only a small number of DMCA notices 
per month.  (We don't receive a DMCA notice every day, some months use an estimate.  The numbers also vary widely over 
time, so you can't assume that the same numbers of notices are sent every day.  In one twenty four hour period this 
month, the numbers increment by nearly 600,000.  Most 24 hour periods see less than 100,000. A larger institution with 
more notices may be able to come up with more exact numbers.)  So for the last three years, the totals are:

2009       3,275,617
2010       12,525,299
2011       16,583,726

Most likely, 2011 will see roughly double the number of total notices from the RIAA.

If anyone is willing to share any more detailed info on their DMCA experiences, I'd be happy to discuss offline.


George Finney, J.D., PMP, CISSP
Information Security Officer and Director of Digital Interests
Southern Methodist University
214-768-3950 office
214-768-9290 fax

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