Re: predictions

[Paul Ferguson <fergdawgster () gmail com>]

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On Fri, Jan 15, 2010 at 6:39 PM, Nick FitzGerald <nick () virus-l demon co uk>
wrote:

> Larry Seltzer wrote:
>
> > What if Google actually follows through on their no-censorship threat?
> > The Chinese can't let them get away with it, so I have to think Google
> > will at least lose some business there. That's a consequence. But plenty
> > of other companies will take their place.
>
> I saw some stats on this on CNN (or BBC ?) the other day.  Google is a
> distant not-first in .cn search.  IIRC, Baidu has nearly 60% of that
> market and Google has about a third of the rest (I think in third pace
> behind another .cn provider).  This lowly marketshare (by Google's
> standards/expectations) means that their advertising revenue is even
> more heavily affected because revenue per impression, etc depends on
> marketshare.  The commentator suggested that therefore the market loss
> for Google pulling out of .cn, as a result of the expected intolerance
> of the Chinese government to Google's non-filtering move, may be
> smaller than the up-tick in intangibles (feelgood factor, etc) in
> Google's other markets and with EU legislators, etc, with whom Google
> is starting to have some, ummm, "difficulties".

Favorite Quote of The Day -- Ira Winkler:

"The whole affair reminds me of a scene in the movie There Will Be Blood ,
when Daniel Day Lewis' corrupt oil baron tries to buy drilling rights from
several landowners, and only one holds out. Years later, the farmer, in
need of money, reconsidered. The oil baron, in a drunken rage, laughs at
the landowner's representative and tells him that all of the oil was in one
common pool, and that when he pumped the oil out of the ground from one
piece of land, he got the oil under everybody else's land. It was as if he
had stuck a really long straw in the farmer's milkshake, he said, adding 'I
drank your milkshake.' Given the nature of the Internet, whether or not
Google pulls out of China, China will drink Google's milkshake."

http://www.pcworld.com/article/187018/chinas_google_hack_shouldnt_surprise_
anyone.html

Ira sure can grind out a great quote. :-)

- - ferg

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-- 
"Fergie", a.k.a. Paul Ferguson
 Engineering Architecture for the Internet
 fergdawgster(at)gmail.com
 ferg's tech blog: http://fergdawg.blogspot.com/
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