IP: Java Loses Netscape

[Dave Farber <farber () cis upenn edu>]

From: dwiner () well com (DaveNet email)
Subject: Java Loses Netscape


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> From Scripting News... It's DaveNet!
Released on 1/24/98; 10:44:03 AM PST
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  Last week, talking with several Netscape people, they told me
  privately that Netscape's commitment to Java was over.


  In the future, they would provide APIs that allow operating system
  vendors such as Microsoft, Sun or Apple to hook Java virtual machines
  into their web browsing software, but Netscape will not take
  responsibility for porting and maintaining the Java virtual
  machine for all the operating systems they support.


  Late last night, the San Jose Mercury-News broke the story.


  <http://www.sjmercury.com/business/center/netscapejava012498.htm>


  ***History


  We're at a juncture here. A loop is unwinding. It was Netscape's
  commitment to Java that put it on the map in 1995. That endorsement is
  over.


  Java didn't become the ubiquitous web content format that people
  widely predicted it would. It's no longer reasonable to argue that
  someday it will.


  In late 1997, in a phone conversation with Bill Gates, I asked why they
  didn't give Java back to Sun and take it out of Windows? Let Sun have
  exclusive development responsibility for Java? Wouldn't that be
  easier than fighting a lengthy legal battle with Sun?


  His response was that they needed Java to keep MSIE competitive with
  Navigator. Now that reason has gone away. Microsoft may or may not
  give Java back to Sun, but their primary reason to continue to invest
  in Java is gone.


  ***Balance


  Now we have to wonder, who's going to balance Microsoft? There was a
  short euphoric period when the Internet, and Microsoft's lack of
  presence in it, fed an enormous creative energy and independence.
  Netscape was at the center of that euphoria.


  It's the same answer it always was. The secret is working together.
  Win-wins. Large companies partnering with small ones, leveraging
  off each other's strengths. This is what Microsoft is not good at.
  This is the zig to Microsoft's zag.


  Bill Gates, in a BusinessWeek interview, points out that IBM has ten
  times the number of people as Microsoft. Sun has almost as much
  revenue as Microsoft. Apple has 25 million users.


  For every Microsoft-owned content format, there are competitive
  formats with just as much following. An example -- Microsoft has
  NetShow, and there's RealAudio and QuickTime, neither of which is
  owned by Microsoft. MacroMedia has Flash and Shockwave. What does
  Microsoft have?




  Further, Microsoft does not have a dominant position in content
  development tools, in fact, Microsoft is barely present in this
  market! There's so much juice there, so much unorganized balance.


  But the big companies do it wrong, they don't do win-wins with smaller
  companies. Unfortunately for them, the really good independent
  thinking non-Microsoft developers work at the smaller companies.


  To counterbalance Microsoft you need an army of highly incentivized
  independent developers producing exciting software.


  The venture capital model is weak at providing balance to Microsoft.
  They produce some hits, mostly misses. The CEOs they hire are not
  grounded in technology, they make good IPO roadshows, but in the end
  the companies become Microsoft roadkill. Their Act One is good, but
  two, three and four are weak or non-existent. This happens because
  the companies try to be Microsoft. You can't, there already is a
  Microsoft, and they're very good at being that.


  Let's learn from the Netscape experience. Their natural grounding
  was in the content developer world. The leader of Netscape should
  have been someone skilled in building websites, someone who loves
  the medium, who speaks the language and understands the issues of
  content people: writers, artists, designers and geeks. That person
  would have known how to zig to Microsoft's zag. It's testimony to the
  weakness of the VC model that Microsoft could capture the hill in web
  browsers even though their technologists don't do websites.


  ***Armies of unpaid developers


  The most common analyst quote in response to the Netscape release of
  source code says that an "army of unpaid developers" will now be
  available to Navigator, an army that won't be available to
  Microsoft.


  I'm sure Microsoft can come up with an answer to that and it's not even
  the issue. Individual programmers may have artistic reasons to want
  to improve Navigator, but most great programmers insist on getting
  paid for their work. I wouldn't bet too heavily on an army of unpaid
  developers.


  But who has the money to support a bunch of competitive efforts to
  improve the browser world, and to provide realistic balance to
  Microsoft's strength?


  The answer is IBM or Intel or Cisco or TCI or any cash rich media company
  that thinks the Internet is an important part of their future. Or even
  the Silicon Valley venture capitalists could invest in a company
  with a non-traditional spreadsheet, for strategic reasons.


  Let's work out the economics, build another brand name that people
  can respect, an alternative to Microsoft, built out of brains and
  passion for art and choice and competition.


  We, the software industry, can solve this problem.


  ***Let's do something


  The Netscape people could see the writing on the wall.


  They didn't want to take the source code for Navigator down with their
  corporate ship.


  Their choice, to release the source for Navigator, was an act of
  unusual generosity.


  Let's do something with that.


  ***Off to Palm Springs




  Tomorrow I'm off to Palm Springs for Microsoft's Web Tech Ed
  conference.


  I'm going to spend a lot of time hanging out with Microsoft people in
  the next few days. No doubt we have interesting stuff to talk about.


  So this is probably the last DaveNet piece till Wednesday or
  Thursday. I'll take good notes and let you know what happened in Palm
  Springs and in this incredible world we live in.


  ***Frontier 5


  A final note.


  Frontier 5 is scheduled to ship on Wednesday.


  Look to <http://www.scripting.com/frontier5/> for news.


  Wish us luck!


  Dave Winer


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