Interesting People mailing list archives
IP: Two Y2K articles: power could go out & human inventiveness
From: Dave Farber <farber () cis upenn edu>
Date: Mon, 23 Nov 1998 19:06:24 -0500
From: Declan McCullagh <declan () well com> http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/dynamic/news/business_story.html?in_review_id= 93322 November 20, 1998 United Utilities in 2000 bug chaos alert by JONATHAN PRYNN North-west energy and water supplier United Utilities today became the first major company in its sector to spell out the stark truth about the millennium bug, warning that there is "a risk of failure" on the big night. [...] The group already has emergency and disaster plans in place, which "will be used as a basis on which to develop the additional plans necessary to ensure we are ready to cater for impacts of the millennium date change". [...] ********** From: "Alan Docherty" <freenet () globalnet co uk> To: "Declan McCullagh" <declan () well com> Subject: Human ingenuity may save us from millennium mayhem Date: Sun, 22 Nov 1998 21:53:30 -0000 Declan,
From the business section of the Observer today, a voice of sanity that says
we have the capacity to survive Y2K. Alan Sunday November 22, 1998 Bug puts the bite on world recovery But human ingenuity may save us from millennium mayhem, writes Anthony Browne It may be banal. It is definitely nerdish. But it could be a bigger threat to the global economy than the current financial crisis. The Treasury has admitted that it will hit the economy, but has no idea how badly. Independent economists are less cautious: after the millennium, they warn, the world is likely to find itself in severe recession. The culprit is not devaluing currencies, debt overhangs or ballooning trade deficits. It is errant pieces of computer code: the millennium bug. [...] To protect themselves, many firms are likely to start stockpiling supplies towards the end of 1999. But this in itself could make a recession more likely: it will boost growth next year and make the slowdown in 2000 more pronounced as companies use up stocks rather than placing more orders. Cottrell said: 'It's this stockpiling which is usually responsible for sending economies into recession.' The bug's effect abroad could hit Britain in more straightforward ways. Many of this country's trading partners, such as Japan and Germany, are far less advanced in solving the problem. In Japan, the financial system is near collapse anyway, and preparations are way behind. Widespread computer disruption could bring economic disaster. The bug comes just as the global economy is struggling back on to its feet. 'You could have a double whammy,' said Flower, 'A soft landing could turn into a hard landing if the bug does its worst.' The antidote to all this gloom could be something far simpler: good old human inventiveness. Earlier predictions of catastrophe - from Malthus's 1798 warning about famine to the Seventies fear of energy shortages - have so far been confounded by improved agricultural productivity, better oil-extraction technology and improved energy efficiency. If their computers go, small companies in particular will be able to go back to pen and paper. If the lift goes, you can take the stairs. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, said: 'Past experience suggests that people are resilient and adapt well to serious disruptions in ways that minimise overall macro-economic effects.' Alan Wilson of consultancy Oxford Economic Forecasting has studied the impact of the bug, and predicts that it will depress economic growth by only 0.3 per cent. 'We were reassured by looking at some of the other disruptions economies have faced,' he said. 'The three-day week in the Seventies had a remarkably small effect on GDP, and Canada quickly got back to normal after the ice storms earlier this year.' You could also drown your sorrows at millennium parties, but this could be another case of the cure killing the patient. The large-scale preparations, celebrations and millennium building projects will boost growth in 1999 - one estimate is that it will be by as much as 1 per cent. But again this will wind down in 2000, reinforcing the slowdown. There is probably only one way to escape a millennium recession. Cottrell suggests: 'Go to live and work in an economy that isn't based on the Christian calendar - you'll be laughing.' http://reports.guardian.co.uk/articles/1998/11/22/p-34482.html -------------------------------------------------------------------------- POLITECH -- the moderated mailing list of politics and technology To subscribe: send a message to majordomo () vorlon mit edu with this text: subscribe politech More information is at http://www.well.com/~declan/politech/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------- _____________________________________________________________________ David Farber The Alfred Fitler Moore Professor of Telecommunication Systems University of Pennsylvania Home Page: http://www.cis.upenn.edu/~farber
Current thread:
- IP: Two Y2K articles: power could go out & human inventiveness Dave Farber (Nov 23)