IP: RE: If you love GPRS, set it free

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

> From: "Alan A. Reiter" <reiter () wirelessinternet com>
> To: <farber () cis upenn edu>
>
> Hi Dave,
>
> Since my URL is "wirelessinternet.com," I have something of an interest in
> seeing that "Wireless Internet" (or "Mobile Internet") becomes a reality!
> However, to become a reality, the wireless industry -- operators,
> manufacturers and some content providers -- have to stop misleading the
> public about what they offer.  802.11 is wireless Internet.  Metricom was
> wireless Internet.  But WAP is not wireless Internet.  GPRS isn't likely to
> be, either.
>
> GPRS speeds are, typically 20K - 40K bps.  CDMA speeds for 1xRTT which will
> be available in the U.S. next year might actually be 40K - 60K bps per user.
> But the network operators must reconsider their pricing models for packets,
> or else these data services will be failures, too.
>
> AT&T, VoiceStream and Cingular have launched GPRS services and, of course,
> are promoting GPRS as wireless Internet.  AT&T's GPRS plan **starts** at
> $49.99 per month for voice service + 1MB of data.  One megabyte?  For $50?
> With current GPRS plans in the U.S., anyone who wants to use the service as
> "wireless Internet" either needs to be extremely wealthy or will go bankrupt
> paying for packets!
>
> Also, will subscribers get into the habit of counting packets?  How will
> they keep track of usage?
>
> These GPRS prices are, of course, for the so-called early adopters.  It will
> be interesting to see how the CDMA carriers, such as Sprint and Verizon,
> price their 1xRTT services, which are expected around mid-2002.  Both
> carriers are already testing 1xRTT around the U.S.
>
> By-the-way, although everyone is hailing "packet pricing" as the Only True
> Way to Success, I have a contrary view.  If you could get airtime speeds of,
> for example, 40K - 50K bps over 1xRTT, would you wind up paying much less at
> $.10 PER MINUTE or per-packet (or per 1K)?  In many instances, I think a low
> per-minute rate (as offered by today's "big bucket" plans) would be more
> economical for wireless data access.
>
>
> Alan
>
>
> ---------------------------------------
> Alan A. Reiter, president
> Wireless Internet & Mobile Computing
> E-Mail: reiter () wirelessinternet com
> Phone: 1-301-951-0385
> Web: http://www.wirelessinternet.com
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-ip-sub-1 () admin listbox com
> [mailto:owner-ip-sub-1 () admin listbox com]On Behalf Of David Farber
> Sent: Tuesday, December 04, 2001 2:26 AM
> To: ip-sub-1 () majordomo pobox com
> Subject: IP: If you love GPRS, set it free
>
>
>
> >>From: "Janos G." <janos451 () earthlink net>
> >>Subject: If you love GPRS, set it free
> >>Date: Mon, 3 Dec 2001 09:17:14 -0800
> >>MIME-Version: 1.0
> >>
> >>Give away GPRS, urges CMG
> >>William Fellows - www.the451.com
> >>
> >>CMG Wireless believes operators should be giving away GPRS network
> capacity
> >>to subscribers free of charge in order to stimulate the use of non-voice
> >>services and to secure the use of 3G in future. And it chooses its words
> >>carefully. "Mobile internet is the worst term you could invent," the
> company
> >>says.
> >>
> >>Context Users regard wireline internet content as essentially free and are
> >>going to expect the "mobile internet" to be the same, it believes. "GPRS
> >>isn't going to hot rod the use of mobile data." Instead operators need to
> >>create applications that are valuable and high bandwidth.
> >>
> >>CMG's outspoken view is based on the assumption that no-one really needs
> 3G.
> >>However operators have paid the license fees and they need to recoup their
> >>investments therefore they need to educate people. "GPRS is the learning
> >>curve," it insists. "No services available today need 1Mbit."
> >>
> >>Technology Indeed it seems the use of or need for 1Mbit data speeds will
> be
> >>primarily for visual applications. People can't read text at 1Mbit speeds,
> >>but they can see images. Moreover because subscribers who are walking or
> >>driving are not going to be using visual applications, it makes us wonder
> >>whether 3G is strictly a cellular service at all. Cellular networks are
> >>designed for maintaining connections as subscribers move. 1Mbit visual
> >>applications will mostly be used while subscribers are stationary (or are
> >>passengers on trains or in cars).
> >>
> >>"Forget about information services, interactive gaming and music
> downloads,"
> >>says CMG, what is required to make GPRS and 3G a success are new
> >>applications, and services which exploit person-to-person messaging. It
> >>points to Hutchison 3G's appointment of a manager of adult content as one
> >>indication of how some operators are gearing up for obvious opportunities.
> >>
> >>Also key, CMG says, will be operators' willingness to share a greater
> amount
> >>of revenue with ISVs than is currently on the table, and follow the NTT
> >>DoCoMo iMode model.
> >>
> >>Multimedia messaging is clearly going to be a winner. SMS is well
> understood
> >>and used. If operators are able to encourage users to send one multimedia
> >>message with a value say three times what it costs to send a text message,
> >>the step change in revenue opportunity becomes clear.
> >>
> >>Financial impact CMG's business is of course selling the gateways and
> >>services which support messaging, and it believes there are still many
> >>opportunities to be exploited. The US market for one. By pushing its SMS
> >>gateways into the North American market, CMG Wireless is effectively
> trying
> >>to do there what Germany's Materna wireless group did across Europe. CMG
> >>Wireless claims 31.1% of all SMS messages sent are routed through its SMS
> >>centers compared with 27.2% for rival Logica, 20% for NTT DoCoMo's
> in-house
> >>system and 8.9% for Nokia.
> >>
> >>Materna pioneered the development of technology (and encouraged the
> business
> >>models) which enable European mobile phone subscribers to send SMS
> messages
> >>between different networks as a matter of course. However while CMG has
> >>signed a clutch of Canadian operators for its gateways US cellular
> >>subscribers are still unable to send SMS messages beyond their own
> networks.
> >>While US operators seem disinclined to promote inter-network messaging
> (and
> >>the US already has extensive two-way paging) there are nevertheless some
> >>compelling revenue opportunities for this activity which don't exist in
> >>Europe: US subscribers already pay to receive calls.
> >>
> >>Conclusion CMG's call for operators to provide access to GPRS networks at
> >>the same price as 2G will fall on deaf ears. Operators are desperate to
> >>begin paying back debt and offsetting ARPU decline. They're not about to
> >>give anything away. But CMG's point is a good one. Operators believe GPRS'
> >>'always on' functionality will make it compelling, and it probably will,
> but
> >>not in itself. The horse must come before the cart. Comsumers do not buy
> >>technology - vis WAP. New applications and services as well as MMS will be
> >>required to demonstrate the value of these networks and generate the kind
> of
> >>interest that will lead a subscriber to pay more for it.
> >
>
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