IP: Death and terrorism, some data and questions

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

> Date: Tue, 16 Oct 2001 13:15:40 -0500
> From: "Lawrence Adams" <larry () bluemartini com>
>
> Dave,
>
> I was pondering my personal risk of being affected by a terrorist
> attack, and decided to look up some death statistics at the CDC.  The
> estimated age adjusted death rate in the United States for the year 2000
> was 872.4 per 100,000 (a record low).  The total population used for
> this calcuation was roughly 274 million.  If we estimate the number of
> deaths due to terrorist attacks this year in the United States at 7,500
> (well above current government and media estimates), that figures in at
> 2.73 deaths per 100,000, or 0.3% of the 2000 figure.  I used overall
> death statistics because I felt terrorism is age-indiscriminant.
>
> A report on NPR's Marketplace [http://www.marketplace.org] radio program
> October 15 estimated that the U.S. government could spend $1.3 Trillion
> (yes trillion) on homeland defense in the next 5 years.  They have
> already allocated billions to the effort, and are spending untold
> millions each day dropping bombs in Afghanistan in support of the
> anti-terrorism campaign.
>
> How much does the government plan to spend on preventing the other
> leading causes of death (besides homicide) over the same time period?
> How many deaths does the government expect as a result of terrorism in
> the coming years?  How will this figure be affected as a result of
> counter-terrorism efforts?
>
> What will have a greater effect on the mortality rate in this country,
> counter-terrorism, or disease prevention?
>
> I do not want to diminish the need to protect ourselves from terroristic
> threats; it would seem that terrorism (homicide) threatens to move up
> the list at an alarming rate if we fail to act.  We should examine our
> spending priorities based on hard data on the threats posed to our
> health and well being.  I urge those on this list to pose these
> questions to your elected representatives, and welcome any data which
> might shed light on these questions.
>
> For reference, the top 15 leading causes of death in the United States
> for the year 2000 (estimate, per 100,000)
> Source:  http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr49/nvsr49_12.pdf
> [warning, 1.7 MB file]
>
> 1. Disease of the heart: 257.9
> 2. Malignant neoplasms: 200.5
> 3. Cerebrovascular diseases: 60.3
> 4. Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 44.9
> 5. Accidents: 34.0
> 6. Diabetes mellitus: 24.9
> 7. Influenza and pneumonia: 24.3
> 8. Alzhiemer's: 17.8
> 9. Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis: 13.7
> 10. Septicemia: 11.5
> 11. Suicide: 10.3
> 12. Chronic liver disease: 9.5
> 13. Essential hypertension and hypertensive renal disease: 6.5
> 14. Pneumonitis due to solids and liquids: 6.1
> 15. Assault (homicide): 5.9 *
>
> *  Homicide deaths should include the terrorist deaths this year, and
> may climb a spot or two on the list for 2001.


For archives see: http://lists.elistx.com/archives/interesting-people/