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IP: educating the public about risk and uncertainty
From: David Farber <dave () farber net>
Date: Mon, 29 Oct 2001 06:49:54 -0500
Date: Sun, 28 Oct 2001 17:40:49 -0600 To: David Farber <dave () farber net> From: Benjamin Kuipers <kuipers () cs utexas edu> Dave, How should the government and the press inform the public about ongoing terrorist threats? As we have seen in the anthrax crisis, - it may take time to know whether an attack is taking place at all, - there are best-case and worst-case scenarios, - the public has the right to know that appropriate action is being taken, and the right to question and comment on those actions, - our understanding of the situation changes with time, - individuals want to know how they can help and how to protect themselves, - individuals want to know how much risk they face, - the public wants to know how much risk our society faces, - the public wants to know who is responsible. We have also seen that frantic and fear-driven responses can have far more impact on our society than the actual attack. Can we devise a clear, standard way to communicate our evolving understanding of uncertain and risky situations? There will be more threats, more attacks, and more damage in the future. We need to be prepared to inform the public properly. A presentation of risk requires probabilities, but those numbers are meaningless unless calibrated against a standard spectrum of risks that people are familiar with, for example the risks of (a) crossing a busy street at a traffic light, (b) driving 100 miles on an Interstate highway, or (c) motorcycling the same 100 miles. (There are undoubtedly better examples to choose.) Uncertainty and the changing state of knowledge require not just probabilities, but ranges of probabilities. These are sophisticated concepts. To learn to understand them, people will need repeated exposure to information in the same format, and explicit education. This has been done with reasonable success with information like nutrition labels on foods, and with polling information in Newsweek and USA Today. The tactic of terrorism is to create terror. Fear, and the impact of fear, is often all out of proportion to the actual danger and destruction caused by the act itself. Trustworthy knowledge fights terror, even in the face of real dangers. The American public has the right to expect straight information. It also has the collective intelligence to use this information, if it is presented with clarity and integrity. We have fallen short during the anthrax crisis, but we could be prepared for the next one. The IP list includes some people well qualified to design such a presentation (a difficult task, to create a simple presentation of complex and sophisticated information!). It includes others who are in a position to put it into use. Knowledge is power. It prevents panic and encourages right action. Arm our citizens with knowledge. Best wishes, Ben Kuipers Benjamin Kuipers, Professor email: kuipers () cs utexas edu Computer Sciences Department tel: 1-512-471-9561 University of Texas at Austin fax: 1-512-471-8885 Austin, Texas 78712 USA http://www.cs.utexas.edu/users/kuipers
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- IP: educating the public about risk and uncertainty David Farber (Oct 29)