IT job trends: The buck starts here

[Dave Farber <dave () farber net>]

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From: "John F. McMullen" <observer () westnet com>

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 IT job trends: The buck starts here
 Best bets in 2003 and beyond

 by David Foote

 It's tough to get a firm grip on the state of the IT job market, given
 today's ragged worldwide economic conditions, cascading reductions in
 force, and the unrelenting pace of technological change. Career planning
 for IT workers is downright confusing, whether you're employed, unemployed
 or underemployed. For those pondering the next step in their IT careers,
 this edition of the IT Career Expert newsletter nets some of the best (and
 worst) bets when it comes to different technical skills, industries and
 geographic locations.

 The bucks start here

 2002 was a tough year for IT pay. Total compensation for 85 IT positions
 tracked by Foote Partners declined by an average of 2.8%, with cash
 bonuses falling by 32%. This research was conducted using input from
 32,000 IT professionals (see Methodology).

 Bucking the downward trend were corporate security jobs (up an average of
 5.5% in base pay and 3.3% in total compensation), plus jobs for
 experienced networking professionals and for application systems
 developers working in e-commerce-related areas.

 Moreover, premium pay for security certification bonuses rose 11.3% in
 value in 2002 and an even more impressive 31% over the past two years,
 according to our research. The growth was due largely to several GIAC
 technical niche certifications from the SANS Institute and renewed
 interest in the management-oriented Certified Information Systems Security
 Professional and Certified Information Systems Auditor certifications. All
 registered between 11% and 38% growth last year.

 Median premium pay for 54 technical certifications has grown a surprising
 0.5% over the past two dreadful years (even with a modest 3.3% decline in
 2002), led not just by security but also by solid performances recently by
 certifications in project management, Linux (up 17%), and networking (most
 notably Novell Inc.'s Certified Novell Engineer and Master Certified
 Novell Engineer).

 Also hot: skills in voice over IP, Wireless Markup Language (WML), DB2,
 VoiceXML, SAP AG's ABAP language, and NetWare; all these skills grew in
 value in 2002. The highest paying? Rapid application development/extreme
 programming, XML, SQL Server, WML and Oracle database and enterprise
 applications skills.

 Foote Partners' best bets for short- and long-term career direction:
       Security management
       Network management
       Enterprise infrastructure and architecture
       SAP-related development
       Wireless
       Project management
       Project-based work implementing customer-facing systems and
       processes
       Databases
       Business technology


 Are you 'geographically' challenged?

 Do you live in a location that is helping or hurting your chances for a
 good job in IT? Monthly metropolitan area employment statistics issued by
 the Department of Labor provide some clues. December 2002 statistics,
 available at DOL data, reveals the following bright spots, summarized here
 in order of relative performance:
       Largest over-the-year, non-farm employment increases:
       Riverside-San Bernardino, Calif. (+22,000 jobs)
       Las Vegas
       Miami
       San Diego
       Largest over-the-year percentage employment increases:
       Elkhart-Goshen, Ind. (+4.5%)
       Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, Ark.
       McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, Texas
       Santa Fe, N.M.
       Tacoma, Wash.
       Atlantic City-Cape May, N.J.
       Laredo, Texas
       Madison, Wis.
       Wausau, Wis.
       Savannah, Ga.
       Asheville, N.C.
       Lowest unemployment rates for large metropolitan areas:
       Greater Washington, D.C. (3.1%)
       Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minn.
       Largest over-the-year unemployment declines in large metropolitan
       areas:
       Las Vegas (1.9%)
       Miami
       Orlando, Fla.


 And these are the metropolitan areas less likely to support IT jobs,
 according to the December labor statistics:
       Highest unemployment rates in large metropolitan areas:
       San Jose, Calif. (7.5%)
       New York
       Portland, Ore.-Vancouver, British Columbia
       Largest over-the-year, non-farm employment declines:
       Chicago (-57,400 jobs)
       New York
       Detroit
       Seattle
       San Jose, Calif.
       Atlanta
       San Francisco
       The largest over-the-year percentage employment declines:
       Flint, Mich. (4.3%)
       Decatur, Ill.
       Bridgeport, Conn.
       Boulder-Longmont, Colo.
       Albany, Ga.
       Witchita, Kan.
       Elmira-Binghamton, N.Y.


 Looking beyond 2003, several emerging job markets will produce more IT
 jobs. The Albany, N.Y., area and surrounding region are receiving
 substantial investments from the state government and private investors
 that are intended to attract technology businesses. Sematech -- an Austin,
 Texas-based consortium of 12 semiconductor companies from seven countries
 -- will soon be opening its newest program in Albany.


 Business is surging for defense contractors and the biomedical firms in
 Washington, D.C., and northern Virginia, where the jobless rate is the
 nation's lowest. The Northern Virginia Technology Council estimates a
 current demand for some 4,000 to 5,000 IT workers, especially government
 contractors with security clearances.


 In California, an array of medical device and biomedical companies needing
 IT pros (including Baxter International Inc. and Becton, Dickinson and
 Company) are also figuring into job growth in the 28,000-square mile,
 three-county Riverside-San Bernardino area east of Los Angeles. But the
 primary reason why this area, dubbed the Inland Empire region, created the
 most jobs in the country last year: it's become a burgeoning center for
 distribution, requiring specialized skills in logistics and IT.


 Las Vegas and Reno, Nev., are enjoying strong job growth tied to the
 post-September 11 return of gaming and leisure customers. Jobs are
 returning to Miami and Orlando, Fla., for some of the same reasons.


 There's no doubt that industry has a lot to do with where IT employment
 can be found. Manufacturing continues to be the weakest industry division,
 according to Department of Labor research, which cites employment growth
 in the services, government, finance, insurance and real estate
 industries. My firm's research findings indicate IT job growth in the
 financial services, defense, insurance, health care, pharmaceutical and
 biomedical industries, but continued hard times for IT workers in the
 technology, wholesale/retail, and media/publishing sectors.


 Trends to watch closely


 Disaffected, stressed-out, private-sector IT workers with worthless stock
 options are more aggressively seeking jobs in federal and state
 government. Who could blame them? Why wouldn't they want a more relaxed
 work environment, shorter hours, generous family-friendly benefits and
 better job security? Especially those who risk losing their jobs
 permanently to offshore technicians, contractors and part-time workers who
 can work more cheaply and provide IT executives with greater flexibility
 and responsiveness. So-called permanent layoffs are a deadly serious
 employment trend that have appeared not just in our research but in a
 report issued in August by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which confirmed
 that a structural downsizing began more than a decade ago -- a downsizing
 that's similar to the workforce reductions in manufacturing and aerospace
 jobs during the last century.


 For a free copy of Foote Partners' just-released "2003 Trends Report on
 Technical Certifications & Skills Pay" go to this URL and follow the
 instructions.


 ABOUT THE AUTHOR:


 David Foote is president and chief research officer at Foote Partners LLC,
 the management consultancy and IT workforce research firm he cofounded in
 1997. He was formerly an industry analyst at Gartner Inc. and Meta Group,
 where he founded and directed Meta's CIO/CTO research service and led its
 IT human capital management and compensation research areas. During the
 past 20 years -- including a decade in Silicon Valley as a technology
 executive and industry consultant -- Foote has advised corporations and
 governments on five continents in information-age management strategies.
 His editorial columns, articles and contributions appear weekly in a
 variety of popular business, IT and human resources publications, and are
 broadcast on the radio and through webcasts. Contact him at
 dfoote () footepartners com or 203-972-6689.


  "When you come to the fork in the road, take it" - L.P. Berra
  "Always make new mistakes" -- Esther Dyson
  "Be precise in the use of words and expect precision from others" -
   Pierre Abelard
  "Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic"
   -- Arthur C. Clarke
                         John F. McMullen
  johnmac () acm org ICQ: 4368412 Fax: (603) 288-8440 johnmac () cyberspace org
                 http://www.westnet.com/~observer
                             NOYFB,P










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