more on Future of Space

[Dave Farber <dave () farber net>]

Delivered-To: dfarber+ () ux13 sp cs cmu edu
Date: Wed, 21 Jan 2004 09:32:05 -0600
From: "Stephen D. Poe" <sdpoe () acm org>
Subject: Re: [IP] Future of Space
To: dave () farber net


> By contrast, manned, deep-space vehicles cost a lot, risk human lives, 
and promise little practical benefit (and not appreciably more than 
unmanned, deep-space vehicles). Consequently, they're colored bright red 
(for red ink, i.e., money, and for the red human blood likely to be shed in 
such missions). The other two quadrants are a paler shade of red, showing 
that they're primarily cost centers and don't offer much practical payoff.
>
> To the extent that we launch manned, deep-space missions, these must be 
sold to the American public on the basis of pure national hubris, pure 
manifest destiny, and pure science. In other words, as pure symbols devoid 
of serious practical benefit.
>
> I personally think that's an absolute waste of money. Focus on earth, 
earth-orbit, and all things that make life on earth more pleasant.
>
> Jim
>
> James Kobielus

Dave -

I suggest Mr. Kobielus' view doesn't take into account two key issues, one 
philosophical and one economic.


Philosophically, I believe man has always needed new frontiers to explore. 
This is not only to expand, but also to give us an external goal and vision 
to look outwards. Yes, there are problems here on Earth - but there are 
always problems here on Earth. Especially at this time we desperately need 
something we can focus on outside of our current problems.

"Human spaceflight catches the imagination of people around the world. 
Former adversaries are now working together to build mankind's largest 
outpost in space, the international space station. That undertaking, while 
not without its problems, will ultimately teach us how to work and live 
routinely in space and will prepare for our venture into outer space."
- www.oosa.unvienna.org/unisp-3/docs/backgroundpapers/bp11.pdf

As Newt Gingrich stated in a speech at the Center for Strategic and 
International Studies in Washington, D.C.:
"We ought to be back on the moon, we ought to be on Mars...with all the 
free nations of the planet participating, so that we build a momentum of 
the human race working together to reach out beyond the Earth."
- http://www.airspacemag.com/ASM/Mag/Index/1996/JJ/ptok.html

"More fundamentally, a sense of purpose and achievement is important for 
the wellbeing of any civilisation, and space exploration may be one of the 
few such options open to us. That societies and individuals need something 
like this, even if most people can only participate vicariously, has been 
noted by several thinkers over the years. In 1910 William James famously 
drew attention to the desirability of identifying what he termed "a moral 
equivalent of war," and in 1952 Bertrand Russell thought that "if the world 
is ever to have peace, it must find ways of combining peace with the 
possibility of adventures that are not destructive." The human exploration 
of space would constitute a grand, non-destructive, human adventure which 
may help fulfil this psychological requirement. A vibrant culture also 
needs sources of intellectual stimuli."
- www.star.ucl.ac.uk/~iac/prospect.pdf

"Inspiration, hope, pride, adventure, a vicarious sense of danger, the 
excitement of discovery--all are intangibles that connect individuals to 
our achievements in space. Space is a venue for accomplishing the 
impossible and knowing the unknowable. Whether it's walking on the surface 
of another world or unraveling the almost unfathomable mysteries of black 
holes, space has the power to humble and awe.

The spiritual connection to space is a particularly problematic 
justification for spending public funds. "Tax dollars are to support the 
public good, not the individual spirit," the argument goes. Indeed, some in 
Congress express support for the space program for emotional reasons, but 
demand tangible benefits to the nation to justify public expenditures.

Yet the intangibles are fundamental to our character as humans. When people 
weep at a launch of the space shuttle or at the heroism and achievement 
captured in the recent movie Apollo 13, they are demonstrating a connection 
to space that is not intellectual but visceral. The abundance of ancient 
space travel myths and the linking of the heavens to the gods are testimony 
to this spiritual connection."
- http://www.airspacemag.com/ASM/Mag/Index/1996/JJ/ptok.html

Economically, perhaps Mr. Kobielus overlooked the return on exploring new 
frontiers and on "pure science" R&D. Although not as popular now - 
primarily because of the current focus on very short term returns, 
historically both have yielded significantly positive returns on their 
investment. Starting with Columbus' journey to the New World, reviewing the 
large amount of US R&D during the Cold War, and moving into the Apollo 
program, exploration and research have not only paid off but have provided 
handsome returns on their original investments.

"The synergies of advanced research in biology, chemistry and physics 
necessary for human space flight have generated an extraordinary number and 
range of inventions, stimulated thought about the meaning of life, history 
and our common future and created many opportunities for peaceful 
international cooperation. Space-related inventions have created new 
industries and tax sources for social programmes, improved living 
standards, expanded access to tools by miniaturization and production 
processes that have lowered the cost of many technologies from satellite 
communications to medical diagnostic techniques and information-processing 
systems."
- www.oosa.unvienna.org/unisp-3/docs/backgroundpapers/bp11.pdf

"In addition to the impact of space activities on business and on our daily 
lives, there are numerous socio-economic benefits, intangible by nature, 
that are derived directly from scientific and space exploration missions. 
Based on the acquisition and the transfer of scientific knowledge, 
understanding of basic phenomena and mechanisms of physics can be improved 
and better strategies developed to understand, monitor and protect man's 
environment. As regards the indirect effects of such scientific programmes, 
there are a large number of technologies that have a spin-off towards 
applications in medicine, information technology and industrial productivity.
- www.oosa.unvienna.org/unisp-3/docs/backgroundpapers/bp11.pdf

"Economic Benefits
Econometric studies estimate that Apollo returned five to seven dollars to 
the United States' economy for every dollar invested in it. These returns 
came in the form of new industries, new products, new processes and new jobs."
- http://ftp.seds.org/pub/spacecraft/APOLLO/Apollo.benefits



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