more on ANY OPPOSING VIEWPOINTS djf Krugman: Economic Crisis a Ques...

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

Begin forwarded message:

From: Newmedia () aol com
Date: November 26, 2004 9:26:20 PM EST
To: gaj () portman com
Cc: dave () farber net
Subject: Re: [IP] more on ANY OPPOSING VIEWPOINTS djf Krugman: Economic 
Crisis a Ques...

GAJ:

 > Your comments are interesting, but lack any kind of
 > corroborating facts.

 The economic facts are fairly simple -- the BOOM of the late 90's and 
SLUMP of the past few years as well as the slow turnaround now 
unfolding (measured nearly any way you choose) were and still are 
largely the result of the quickening and slowing and quickening again 
of the adoption of new computer/networking technology.

 Since we have all experienced at least a decade during which this 
linkage between adoption of new technology and economic growth has only 
gotten stronger, it might be smart to expect that the next 10 years 
will bear many similiarities to the past 10.  Therefore, any economist 
worth paying attention to should at least have something to say about 
what is happening with new technology and its relation to economic 
growth.

 Do you see any comments on technology from Krugman?  How about Roach?  
Have they made any comments on this topic in the past?  Do they have 
any idea what is going on?  Maybe they're leaving technology out for a 
reason?

 > It may be that roach has an agenda (political or otherwise) as
 > may the NYT.  But that is irrelevant.

 It would indeed be an interesting world where agendas aren't relevant 
but, alas, we don't live in that world.

 Both these economists are editorialists for the NYTimes -- indeed, 
Roach has a version of his Boston comments in print today (Friday.)  
The NYTimes has an apparent editorial "policy" against reporting on 
positive developments in technology.  It consistently reports that many 
tech company's are facing difficult times, even when the management 
directly contradicts this in their quarterly reports.  As a Wall Street 
analyst, I tend to notice these things.

> If you have anything to add supported by your research, I would be
 > very interested in hearing what you have to say.

 We are in the early stages of a multi-year upgrade to our technology 
infrastructure.  As a result, we have started a period of sustained 
economic growth.  As the Cambridge Univ. economist Carlota Perez would 
put it, we are now entering the "synergy" phase of the current 60 
year-long "great surge."

 > I see both the state of NY and the state of CA and all of the
 > largest urban areas therein as broke.

 Governments tend to go broke when tax receipts decline faster than 
spending slows.  This situation is likely to reverse as economic growth 
returns -- due to absorbtion of new technologies.

 > Not to mention that we export relatively little by way of
 > manufactured goods these days and that which we do
 > manufacture contains a relatively high percentage of
 > foreign imported parts.

 Roughly 80% of our economy is in services.  These services are now 
transitioning from "analog" to "digital" -- which is why we're adopting 
broadband, 64-bit systems, service-oriented software architectures, 
etc.

 > I think that alone will be a long an painful process for us.

 No doubt change is painful.  Probably for everyone.  Unfortunately, 
the alternative is even worse.

 > I don't want to be bleak, but I am hardly enthusiastic.

 When asked if he was an optimist or an pessimist, Marshall McLuhan 
said that he was an "apocalypicist."

 Maybe that's what Steve Roach was talking about?

 Best,

 Mark Stahlman
 New York City

-------------------------------------
You are subscribed as interesting-people () lists elistx com
To manage your subscription, go to
 http://v2.listbox.com/member/?listname=ip

Archives at: http://www.interesting-people.org/archives/interesting-people/