P2P Fuels Global Bandwidth Binge

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

------ Forwarded Message
From: Dewayne Hendricks <dewayne () warpspeed com>
Reply-To: <dewayne () warpspeed com>
Date: Thu, 14 Apr 2005 17:34:57 -0700
To: Dewayne-Net Technology List <dewayne-net () warpspeed com>
Subject: [Dewayne-Net] P2P Fuels Global Bandwidth Binge

[Note:  Traffic on the Darknet continues to grow.  This article updates
some of the stats from last July's study by CacheLogic.  In that study
the estimate was p2p traffic was 2/3 of global Net traffic.  Now
they're claiming its in the range of 60-80%.  This is simply
astounding!  DLH]

P2P Fuels Global Bandwidth Binge 
By Joanna Glasner

Story location: 
<http://www.wired.com/news/business/0,1367,67202,00.html>

02:00 AM Apr. 14, 2005 PT

Internet users consumed more bandwidth than ever last year, driven by
the growing popularity of peer-to-peer networks and heightened demand
for video files.

  Burgeoning demand also prompted internet carriers to upgrade their
network capacity to handle the upswing in traffic, a new report
indicates.

  According to TeleGeography, a telecommunications research firm,
international demand for bandwidth grew 42 percent in 2004, with the
largest upswing in usage coming from Asian nations. Last year marked
the second consecutive annual upswing in demand, the firm said, after
carriers added 62 percent more capacity in 2003.

  "It really seems to be picking up again," said Alan Mauldin, senior
research analyst at TeleGeography, regarding demand for bandwidth among
internet carriers surveyed for the report, released this month.

  As internet service providers and operators of backbone networks
sucked up more capacity, so did end users.

  Researchers singled out peer-to-peer file trading as the single
fastest-growing consumer of network capacity. Currently, Mauldin said,
the amount of traffic from peer-to-peer trading rivals that generated
by regular web surfing.

  Growing demand for data-rich files, such as movies, is further
boosting bandwidth consumption.

  "From mid-2004, we saw a significant shift away from music and on to
video," said Andrew Parker, chief technical officer at CacheLogic, a
firm based in England that monitors global peer-to-peer traffic.
"Before that it was mainly music."

  According to Parker, efforts by the film and recording industries to
crack down on illegal trading of copyright works haven't resulted in a
drop in traffic volumes.

  In North America, where the Recording Industry Association of America
and the Motion Picture Association of America have focused enforcement
efforts, Parker said there has been virtually no change in P2P traffic
levels since the groups began cracking down on illegal file trading.

  "In some parts of the world we have seen the opposite happen. The
publicity created by the MPAA actually drove users to find out what all
the fuss was about and resulted in an increase in traffic levels,"
Parker said.

  Today, CacheLogic estimates that P2P applications consume between 60
percent and 80 percent of capacity on consumer ISP networks. The
fastest growth in P2P usage is coming in Asian nations with high
broadband penetration rates, Parker said.

  The average size of traded files is growing, too, Parker said, and
today exceeds 100 MB. In one period of observation, which took place
just after a much-anticipated film release, CacheLogic found that 30
percent of peer-to-peer traffic at one ISP was from a single 600-MB
file.

  While ISPs aren't suffering from a shortage of bandwidth yet, Parker
believes demand for video content could be a problem in the future for
broadband providers who charge a single price for all-you-can-eat
access.

  "ISP business models were based on the idea that not everyone would be
using their internet capacity all the time," he said. If customers are
using their broadband connections to download movies and television
programs all day, that could put a strain on networks.

  But Roopak Patel, senior internet analyst for Keynote Systems,
believes ISPs will be able to cheaply increase capacity or fine-tune
their networks to handle a rise in video traffic.

  "It's not as if we're hurting for bandwidth," Patel said, noting that
there are still plenty of under-used fiber-optic networks that were
built early in the decade, a boom period for telecommunications
infrastructure investment.

  "I wouldn't say (ISPs) are worried about delivery of video content.
They probably say, 'Bring it on.' That's what will drive their
revenue," he said.

  While P2P activity accounts for the lion's share of rising bandwidth
consumption, internet traffic analysts said the growing popularity of
voice over internet protocol, or VOIP, is a factor, too. However, Patel
said VOIP calls typically require a data-transmission rate of less than
30 Kbps, compared to more than 300 Kbps for a video file.

[snip]

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