more on Signs of a bubble?

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

Begin forwarded message:

From: Newmedia () aol com
Date: December 8, 2005 9:32:27 AM EST
To: dave () farber net
Subject: Re: [IP] more on Signs of a bubble?

Dave:

There won't be another BUBBLE like the 1990's in most of our  
lifetimes -- simply can't happen.  The next one comes in the  
2040's . . . at the earliest.

The 1990's were analogous to the 1920's in that both periods  
reflected a repeating pattern in the roughly 50-60 yearlong cycle of  
what are called Techno-Economic Paradigms (TEP.)

These cycles break down into four periods(each about 15 years long),  
known as Irruption, Frenzy, Synergy and Maturity.  The bubble  
develops in the Frenzy period and then pops -- leading to the Synergy  
period.

We are currently entering the 15-year Synergy period in the cycle  
associated with building a global economic infrastructure based on  
semiconductors.  The analogous period for the previous cycle -- which  
was based on building an oil infrastructure -- came in the 1950's.

This timewarp analog is one of the reasons why "Desperate Housewives"  
is such a popular television show. <g>

The next cycle will be based on the ability to arbitrarily construct  
molecules -- organic and inorganic -- so it might be called  
"Molecular Manufacturing."  Much of what is now known as  
nanotechnology as well as biotechnology is pointing us in this  
direction.  But we are probably still a long way from the equivalent  
of the integrated circuit for this next cycle.

The best source on all this is Carlota Perez' book "Technological  
Revolutions and Financial Capital."

Head on over to Amazon and buy yourself one for Xmas!

Best,

Mark Stahlman
New York City

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