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more on Tech: A 'hostile environment' for US natives????
From: David Farber <dave () farber net>
Date: Sun, 8 May 2005 10:42:21 -0400
Begin forwarded message: From: "Jonathan S. Shapiro" <shap () eros-os org> Date: May 8, 2005 9:18:10 AM EDT To: dave () farber net Cc: Ip ip <ip () v2 listbox com>Subject: Re: [IP] more on Tech: A 'hostile environment' for US natives????
[For IP] Gordon poses the question:
...just how I can seriously compete with someone in another country who's delighted to do essentially equivalent work for (what to him is a princely salary) $450 a month?
Nobody else seems willing to come out and actually say it, so perhaps I will to do so: he can't. Here is the point that everyone seems to agree on. Most of us don't like it, but we all seem to agree that in an international marketplace it is a fact: Setting aside certain "boutique" markets, the price of programming is set by an international market. It follows directly that US programmers will either lower their prices to or they will, professionally speaking, cease to exist. But nobody wants to be the "sounder of doom" for the US programming market, so none of us want to state the consequence: US programmers *cannot* lower their prices to that point. Therefore, absent a fundamental change in the economics of software, it's time for US programmers to (a) move to places where what they can earn is a living wage, or (b) find a new job. It's not that the US has a "tech hostile" environment. It's that the laws of global economics are hostile to expensive providers. The right question isn't "How do we keep programmers employed?" The right question is: "How do we change the economics of software?" Here are some options (good and bad, none realistic): 1. Tariffs. We could impose protective tariffs on software written outside the US, just as we do for many other goods. The bottom line is that this isn't a long-haul solution, and we need a long-haul solution. Tariffs just won't work. 2. Eliminate software patents. It is now widely agreed that the main effect of software patent has been to stifle innovation and change in the software industry. Innovation is one of the places where the US still holds a fundamental advantage vs. the rest of the world. Get rid of the impediments to innovation. Use our international political leverage to tear them down elsewhere. 3. Remove liability protection for software vendors. In my opinion this is long overdue, and it would benefit the users. No better way to employ programmers than to finally force us to rebuild everything correctly -- and for that matter, to discover *how* to rebuild things correctly. 4. Invest in raising the standards of living in India and China. This is a long term strategy, and a good one. We've been doing it for a long time. It doesn't solve anything in the short term. 5. Re-think the way we train programmers. We still view Computer Science as a science discipline rather than an engineering discipline. Making US programmers 10 times as effective would go a long way toward offsetting their higher salary. The problem with this approach is that international students can go to school too. 6. Recognize that in the commodity software market the cost of software construction basically doesn't matter, because the profit margin is so high. The place where the cost of programming really matters is in contract effort and/or efforts where there are only a small pool of potential customers. In one sense, the free software people are right: customers do not, and never have, paid for software. 7. Invest in the free software process, since that price cannot be undercut. Shift our business attention to other parts of the value chain. Some of these thoughts just won't work. Others are politically unacceptable, but I do think that I'm asking the right question: How do we change the nature of software economics? The one thing I'll add to the mix, which may prove thought-provoking to programmers: the answer isn't going to be initiated by software companies. It is in your employer's interest to hire at the lowest price. If you want to see change happen, you are going to have to organize a grass roots lobbying effort. This probably means creating a serious programmer's union to protect your jobs as you lobby against the entrenched practices of your employers. It's a long, rough haul. Personally, I'ld prefer to see a more productive solution. I just don't see one within the current political and economic climate. Jonathan Shapiro ------------------------------------- You are subscribed as lists-ip () insecure org To manage your subscription, go to http://v2.listbox.com/member/?listname=ip Archives at: http://www.interesting-people.org/archives/interesting-people/
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- more on Tech: A 'hostile environment' for US natives???? David Farber (May 06)
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- more on Tech: A 'hostile environment' for US natives???? David Farber (May 06)
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