A MUST MUST read on the real world of disaster prep

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

Begin forwarded message:

From: Kelley Greenman <greenman.k () inkworkswell com>
Date: September 7, 2005 2:28:07 PM EDT
To: dave () farber net
Subject: Re: [IP] more on "United States of Shame"


Dave,

Firstly, I live in the Tampa Bay region in Florida. I have watched  
these debates with interest and despair. I have debated sending this.  
I honestly don't have time to get in arguments with people over  
minutae. My only interest is to raise some issues about disaster  
preparedness, evacuation and blame that people haven't really raised  
to my knowledge.

Secondly, I have a background in security awareness training (that's  
the people part of security). I've worked with two corporate clients  
on disaster recovery and business continuity planning. What are our  
mantras?

1). The only secure computer is a dead computer.  The only secure  
community in a hurricane zone is a dead community. There are always  
trade-offs involved. Decisions are made in the real world.

2). You can't prevent disaster, you can only prepare for it and mange  
it when and _after_ it happens. It _will_ happen. Should they have  
prepared better? Of course! So, should every community in hurricane  
territory and beyond. Even after last year's bizarre season, we are  
still not adequately prepared in Florida. Here, in Tampa Bay, we  
don't have enough shelters, let alone properly stocked shelters.

There isn't the political will to ensure they are, even after last  
year. Too many people can simply get in their car or hop on a plane  
and leave. Those same people tend to be more powerful political  
constituencies.

Moreover, it is quite likely that, even if you aren't a resident of a  
coastal community, your own East coast community is ill-prepared for  
a hurricane. As we point fingers at three of the poorest states in  
the nation, is your state prepared for hurricane damage? Are your  
consistencies willing to raise money to be so prepared?

Consider that hurricane Agnes hit Florida's Gulf Coast on June 21,  
1972. In Virginia, the remnants of the storm dumped 13.6 inches of  
rain on the eastern edge of the Blue Ridge Mountains. The rapid,  
voluminous rainfall engorged the waterways of central Virginia and  
the James River flooded to record-high levels. The cost? Thirteen  
lives and $222 million in damage. In Washington D.C., Maryland, and  
Delaware, Agnes caused the death of 22 people. The damage was just  
over $110 million. Pennsylvania, a state far, far from Florida, was  
hardest hit: 50 people died and the entire state was declared a  
disaster area.

Please also note that, when you are reading any documents pertaining  
to evacuation orders, it may not be wise to assume that the word  
"evacuation" means removing people entirely from the area. Here,  
where we face a somewhat similar threat, St. Pete would become an  
island. Only a thin strip of land between Belle Aire and Palm Harbor  
would be left, a sliver of an island that was once a peninsula. Tampa  
and all the communities lining the bay would be deluged.

Under those conditions evacuation means my neighbor merely has to  
move in with me to be considered "evacuated." As I understand it, the  
same situation held for New Orleans: evacuation did not entail moving  
everyone out of the city, but getting as many as possible to move out  
voluntarily and then moving people to shelters and the shelters of  
last resort.


1. HURRICANE PREDICATION IS NOT PERFECT

In the Gulf region, forecasters can only tell you 36-72 hours in  
advance that a hurricane is headed toward a _region_. At that point,  
a hurricane's strike zone is several hundred miles wide.

"Forecasters cannot come close to predicting a storm's landfall  
accurately beyond 24 hours. Three days before a hurricane hits, the  
official forecast can be off by as much as 250 miles in either  
direction -- the distance from New Orleans to a point between  
Pensacola and Panama City, Fla., to the east and Beaumont, Texas, to  
the west."

http://www.nola.com/printer/printer.ssf?/washingaway/leftbehind_3.html

Just ask the residents of Tampa Bay who left in the face of the "big  
ones," Hurricanes Charley and Ivan. For Charley, they ended up  
weathering the storm in Central Florida. For Ivan, they might have  
evacuated everyone out of the area needlessly. In fact, just look at  
the path of all of them: Charley, Frances, Ivan, Jeanne. They are  
lessons in how difficult it would be to evacuate everyone _out of a  
city_ in a timely, safe fashion.

2. A PRE-HURRICANE EVACUATION IS NOT A CAKEWALK

a). A 24-hour window for calling a _mandatory_ evacuation is normal  
around here. This is partly because of the inaccuracy of early  
prediction, partly because of the political constraints on calling  
evacuations so early, and partly because of the economic damage.

It takes 72-84 hours to evacuate New Orleans. At that time, Katrina  
was  first a Cat 1 storm hitting Florida, A tropical storm over land.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,168413,00.html

It doesn't make sense to me to have expected any of the local and  
state officials to think that they should have started evacuations at  
that time.

This is an article published on the day before the hurricane:
http://www.nola.com/search/index.ssf?/base/ 
library-88/1125213019249320.xml?nola


b). "Nagin said late Saturday that he's having his legal staff look into
whether he can order a mandatory evacuation of the city, a step he's
been hesitant to do because of potential liability on the part of the
city for closing hotels and other businesses."

http://www.nola.com/search/index.ssf?/base/ 
library-88/1125213019249320.xml?nola


3. YOU DON'T REALLY HAVE 24 HOURS TO EVACUATE.

a). Aside from the fact that the strike zone is still 85 miles to the  
east or west (so, which way do you go, East, West, North? See  
Hurricane Charley if your answer is North from NOLA: Heading directly  
ahead of a hurricane further inland, isn't always the wisest move to  
make: see Hurricane Charley), it would take quite some time to notify  
people and get them to staging areas.

b). My generous guess: it would take 6 hours to get the first bus on  
the road. That is generous because you'd be dealing with a population  
that isn't prepared:

--rumors would fly; panic would ensue
--it would take time for them to pack
--they would bring pets and problems removing pets from owners would  
ensue
--the recalcitrant would cause problems
--you stress your first responders by adding traffic to the roads

Again, we're back to risk management.

c). Do you have gas? In my experience, there often isn't any gasoline  
to be had prior to a hurricane. The truckers and tankers stop  
delivering to the region.

If you give up all your spare fuel to evacuate out of the city, and  
you can't evacuate everyone, are you just leaving yourself with no  
fuel to power generators and emergency vehicles?  Intelligent people  
will disagree.

d). Would you have drivers? In 2002, NOLA discussed using buses to  
evacuate at the last minute. At the time, it wasn't clear the drivers  
would agree. And, as the article notes, even in Key West, where they  
tried such a plan, only 20% showed up to do the driving.

http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf?/washingaway/leftbehind_4.html

Key West!!

e). In the best pre-hurricane conditions, it takes 8 hours to  
evacuate to Baton Rouge or Hattiesberg.

http://www.nola.com/hurricane/?/weather/data/ssfstuff/ 
evacuationguide.html


f). When a storm is large, feeder bands move in: flash floods,  
tornadoes, lightening storms, downed power lines, tropical force  
winds at 40 MPH that shut down the highways.


This following articles help explain why evacuation of the populace  
outside the city was unlikely on such short notice and, even were it  
to happen, many would still be left behind. Imagine had Nagin  
evacuated, only to use up any fuel he had, only to stress his  
emergency responders even more, leaving them even less able to cope  
later.

This is not to say that I don't hold the local government  
accountable. I do. IT is a tragedy that they don't have well-stocked  
evacuation shelters. Should they have saved the buses? Absolutely?  
Would they have had fuel? I don't know. Should they have reserves of  
fuel? Probably.

I'm not surprised, however. Here in Florida, we use our schools for  
the evacuation centers. They are not prepared to handle people more  
for longer than a three day stay. This isn't a wise strategy given  
what Tampa Bay faces were it to contend with the "big one."

We should probably ask ourselves: Were it our community, would we (do  
we) have the political will to raise the revenues or shift spending  
to prepare for such a disaster?


http://www.weather.com/newscenter/specialreports/hurricanes/ 
vulnerablecities/
America's Vulnerable Cities (A special report at weather.com) These  
articles are especially instructive, particularly as to the  
difficulties of evacuation.

http://www.tampatrib.com/MGBKB74PA9E.html
Stuck In Harm's Way
By Baird Helgeson And Neil Johnson The Tampa Tribune
Published: May 29, 2005


Best,


Kelley


When you need to communicate, Ink Works!
http://www.inkworkswell.com
+1 (727) 942-9255


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