Thinking the unthinkable, predicting the unpredictable

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

Begin forwarded message:

From: Richard Wiggins <richard.wiggins () gmail com>
Date: September 17, 2005 3:20:42 AM EDT
To: David Farber <dave () farber net>
Subject: Thinking the unthinkable, predicting the unpredictable
Reply-To: richard.wiggins () gmail com


Dave,

Hiawatha Bray argues that, even though some folks did predict the
hijacking of planes in order to fly them into buildings, that
virtually no one believed it.  Compare these two quotes:

"I don't think anybody anticipated the breach of levees."

-- President George W. Bush, on Good Morning America, September 1, 2005

"I don't think anybody could have predicted that these people…would
try to use an airplane as a missile, a hijacked airplane as a missile"

-- Condeleeza Rice, May 16, 2002

We know full well that many experts, including members of the
Administration, did in fact predict that flooding would occur if New
Orleans took a direct hit from a hurricane.

Mr. Bray wants to confine any predictions of 9/11 type scenarios to
obscure government reports and Tom Clancy.

It is astonishing that we are having this discussion.  We have an
existence proof!  9/11 did happen.  It's therefore foolish on its face
to say that "No one could have predicted this."

We don't need to debate whether anyone could have predicted using
planes as missiles.  Al Qaeda not only predicted it; they conceived
it, they planned it, and they executed it. Bray's argument implies
that a desperately angry band in Afghanistan can out-think the best
and the brightest in U.S. intelligence and defense.

Of course we cannot predict every possible disaster, or, more to the
point, we can't predict which of many possible disasters may hit next.
 But do we have a "Department of Thinking Like Terrorists" that is at
least thinking through the scenarios?

What else is someone plotting that we cannot predict?

/rich


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