The Odds -- Re: Dell & Apple recall ..

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

Begin forwarded message:

From: "RJR RJRiley.com" <RJR () RJRILEY com>
Date: August 24, 2006 4:56:57 PM EDT
To: dave () farber net
Subject: The Odds -- Re: Dell & Apple recall ..

Dave, for IP if you wish.

Average life cycle temperatures play a big role in when products  
fail.  This
is probably one reason that this problem is apparently more severe in  
Dell
products.  My understanding is that Dell charges the batteries at a  
higher
rate than other companies.  This means that failure rate increases as a
function of both the age of the battery and the total life cycle stress.
Older batteries will probably have a much higher likelihood of a
catastrophic failure.

When things go wrong it is the nature of corporate culture to first  
place
the blame outside the company.  In this case the goat is Sony.  But  
is this
all Sony's fault?  Does the way Dell uses the batteries contribute to  
them
failing?  I think there is a high probability that Dell is culpable.   
Even
if the whole problem was Sony's fault I think that Dell's handling of  
the
situation was at best poor.  According to media coverage of a whistle
blowing ex-employee Dell has known about this problem for a few  
years.  That
is going to be very difficult for Dell to explain away.

There are many reasons to think that this issue is more about Dell's  
less
than competent engineering skills than about Sony.  It is simple, it  
appears
that Sony batteries are used elsewhere without the scope of problems  
seen
with Dell products.  I did talk to the Consumer Product Safety  
Commission
(CPSC) a few weeks ago and they were pushing the manufacturing defect  
line.
I think that Dell has lobbied CPSC and otherwise worked hard to shift  
blame
and that CPSC has bought their arguments.  But when contingency  
litigators
sue Dell all will be revealed during discovery.  Discovery is a very
powerful tool for getting at the truth.  I think that Dell is in serious
trouble.   And their trouble is as much caused by apparent attempts to
suppress this scandal as it is caused by their engineering oversights.

My corporate experience leads me to believe that fault goes all the  
way to
the top at Dell.  But experience also has taught me that when placing  
blame
outside the company is no longer possible that some unfortunate  
person at
Dell will be made the scapegoat.  If and when Dell does this that person
will likely find a home as an expert witness for those who are  
extracting
retribution from Dell for their deficiencies.

I think it is very poor public policy for corporations to sit on  
information
when there is risk of maiming or killing customers.  This year or two  
delay
in coming clean is what bothers me the most.

Ronald J Riley, Exec. Dir.               Ronald J Riley, President
InventorEd, Inc.                             Professional Inventors  
Alliance

www.InventorEd.org                      www.PIAUSA.org
RJR"at"InvEd.org                           RJR"at"PIAUSA.org
Change "at" to @                           Change "at" to @

RJR Direct # (202) 318-1595


-----Original Message-----
From: David Farber [mailto:dave () farber net]
Sent: Thursday, August 24, 2006 4:24 PM
To: ip () v2 listbox com
Subject: more on : The Odds -- Re: [IP] more on apple recall ..



Begin forwarded message:

From: Lauren Weinstein <lauren () vortex com>
Date: August 24, 2006 4:17:00 PM EDT
To: dave () farber net
Cc: lauren () vortex com
Subject: The Odds -- Re: [IP] more on apple recall ..


Dave, not to downplay the seriousness of fires or even slightly  
singed laps,
but it never hurts to look more closely at the numbers.

According to the media reports, between Dell and Apple we're talking  
about
around 6 million notebook batteries, and (at least based on the  
current U.S.
figures I've seen) under 20 total cases of overheating (and far fewer  
actual
fires).  Of course, there's always the risk of future events related to
these batteries, many of which have been in use for quite some time.

But still, do the math and it appears that the odds of getting  
"burned" by
one of these batteries is pretty damn low, *much* lower than the odds of
many other bad things happening (see http://www.funny2.com/odds.htm ).

This isn't to say that defective products are a good thing, but  
trying to
keep such risks in perspective is a useful exercise.

--Lauren--
Lauren Weinstein
lauren () vortex com or lauren () pfir org
Tel: +1 (818) 225-2800
http://www.pfir.org/lauren
Co-Founder, PFIR
    - People For Internet Responsibility - http://www.pfir.org Co- 
Founder,
IOIC
    - International Open Internet Coalition - http://www.ioic.net  
Moderator,
PRIVACY Forum - http://www.vortex.com Member, ACM Committee on  
Computers and
Public Policy Lauren's Blog: http://lauren.vortex.com
DayThink: http://daythink.vortex.com




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