more on China Builds a Better Internet

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

Begin forwarded message:

From: Thomas Narten <narten () us ibm com>
Date: September 23, 2006 12:00:10 AM GMT+02:00
To: dave () farber net
Cc: ip () v2 listbox com
Subject: Re: [IP] China Builds a Better Internet

For IP:

> I do wish people would stop propagating that "MIT has more IP  
> addresses
> than all of china" meme.

Indeed, this is bogus. Thankfully, I don't hear that asserted much
anymore. See, e.g.,
http://icons.apnic.net/index.php? 
option=com_content&task=view&id=377&Itemid=94
for more info.

> In fact, funnily enough, v6 hasn't exactly caught on - even with v6 IP
> space around and available for the asking.

I don't want to start a long thread about IPv6 and how it is or isn't
about to happen, but there are some events that are going to happen in
the next few years that are quite likely to significantly change the
dynamics that have governed the market for IPv6.

1) Microsoft Vista/Longhorn will ship completely IPv6-enabled out of
   the box. That is, you have to disable it if you don't want to use
   it, and it is "preferred" (their language) over IPv4 when both are
   available. All of their applications will be IPv6-enabled.

2) We continue to consume IPv4 addresses at a steady, if not
   accelerating rate. There are of course continuing debates as to
   exactly when we will "run out" of IPv4 addresses (and what that
   means), but instead of being "decades" away, the proverbial light
   at the end of the tunnel can be seen. Fairly conservative estimates
   point to only 6 years left. Less conservative estimates say we have
   less time. And to make the end game even more interesting, the idea
   that as we approach the end point that demand will remain constant
   & predictable and mirror "recent past history" is highly
   suspect. More likely, there will be a surge in demand as folk
   worry/panic about getting as much as they can, which will only
   accelerate things.

   For more info, start with:

   Geoff Huston's work at http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/; his
   current estimates say:

> Projected IANA Unallocated Address Pool Exhaustion: 02-Apr-2011
> Projected RIR Unallocated Address Pool Exhaustion: 09-Jul-2012

   I'd categorize Geoff's projections as conservative.

   Tony Hain has projections that are less conservative. See
   http://www.cisco.com/web/about/ac123/ac147/archived_issues/ 
ipj_8-3/ipv4.html
   and check out the references and roundtable discussion.

3) the US Govt has procurement mandates in place with a goal of being
   able to run IPv6 no later than June, 2008. All products these days
   have to support IPv6 and meet those dates. While this may be no
   guarantee that they will actually be running IPv6 by that date
   (though some agencies have fairly ambitious plans in place to make
   this happen), it is having the very real effect of forcing vendors
   to IPv6-enable their products across-the-board, and especially
   their applications, in order to not be excluded from a rather
   subtantial market opportunity.

Thomas


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