Interesting People mailing list archives
paper on technology manias and gullibility, of some interest to IP list
From: Dave Farber <dave () farber net>
Date: Thu, 5 Aug 2010 10:15:26 -0700
Begin forwarded message:
From: Andrew Odlyzko <odlyzko () umn edu> Date: August 5, 2010 10:11:06 AM PDT To: dave () farber net Subject: paper on technology manias and gullibility, of some interest to IP list
Dave, Since the readers of the IP list are discussed in Section 5 of this paper, they might like to learn of it directly, so they have a chance to react. Best regards, Andrew Enclosed below is an announcement of a paper on technology bubbles. It is based largely on the Internet bubble of a decade ago, and concentrates on the "Internet traffic doubling every 100 days" tale. As the paper shows, this myth was perceived in very different ways by different people, and this by itself helps undermine the foundations of much of modern economics and economic policy making. To get a better understanding of the dynamics of that bubble, to assist in the preparation of a book about that incident, I am soliciting information from anyone who was active in telecom during that period. I would particularly like to know what you and your colleagues estimated Internet traffic growth to be, and what your reaction was to the O'Dell/Sidgmore/WorldCom/UUNet myth. If you were involved in the industry, and never heard of it, that would be extremely useful to know, too. Ideally, I would like concrete information, backed up by dates, and possibly even emails, and a permission to quote this information. However, I will settle for more informal comments, and promise confidentiality to anyone who requests it. Andrew Odlyzko odlyzko () umn edu http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko/doc/mania03.pdf Bubbles, gullibility, and other challenges for economics, psychology, sociology, and information sciences Andrew Odlyzko School of Mathematics and Digital Technology Center University of Minnesota odlyzko () umn edu http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko Preliminary version, August 5, 2010 ABSTRACT Gullibility is the principal cause of bubbles. Investors and the general public get snared by a "beautiful illusion" and throw caution to the wind. Attempts to identify and control bubbles are complicated by the fact that the authorities who might naturally be expected to take action have often (especially in recent years) been among the most gullible, and were cheerleaders for the exuberant behavior. Hence what is needed is an objective measure of gullibility. This paper argues that it should be possible to develop such a measure. Examples demonstrate, contrary to the efficient market dogma, that in some manias, even top-level business and technology leaders do fall prey to collective hallucinations and become irrational in objective terms. During the Internet bubble, for example, large classes of them first became unable to comprehend compound interest, and then lost even the ability to do simple arithmetic, to the point of not being able to distinguish 2 from 10. This phenomenon, together with advances in analysis of social networks and related areas, points to possible ways to develop objective and quantitative tools for measuring gullibility and other aspects of human behavior implicated in bubbles. It cannot be expected to infallibly detect all destructive bubbles, and may trigger false alarms, but it ought to alert observers to periods where collective investment behavior is becoming irrational. The proposed gullibility index might help in developing realistic economic models. It should also assist in illuminating and guiding decision making. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- If you would like to be on the mailing list for notifications of future papers on technology bubbles, please send me a note at odlyzko () umn edu The previous three papers in this series are available at: 1. Collective hallucinations and inefficient markets: The British Railway Mania of the 1840s http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko/doc/hallucinations.pdf 2. This time is different: An example of a giant, wildly speculative, and successful investment mania, B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, vol. 10, issue 1, 2010, article 60 (registration required) http://www.bepress.com/bejeap/vol10/iss1/art60 preprint available at: http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko/doc/mania01.pdf 3. The collapse of the Railway Mania, the development of capital markets, and Robert Lucas Nash, a forgotten pioneer of accounting and financial analysis http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko/doc/mania02.pdf ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source materials for the Railway Mania and the Internet bubble are available at the web pages http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko/rrsources/ and http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko/isources/
------------------------------------------- Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/247/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/247/ Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=18849915&id_secret=18849915-aa268125 Unsubscribe Now: https://www.listbox.com/unsubscribe/?member_id=18849915&id_secret=18849915-32545cb4 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
Current thread:
- paper on technology manias and gullibility, of some interest to IP list Dave Farber (Aug 05)