The future of intense winter storms

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

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From: dewayne () warpspeed com (Dewayne Hendricks)
Date: March 4, 2010 10:15:29 AM EST
To: Dewayne-Net Technology List <xyzzy () warpspeed com>
Subject: [Dewayne-Net] The future of intense winter storms

The future of intense winter storms
Posted by: JeffMasters, 2:43 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
<http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1441>

When Winter Storm Xynthia powered ashore over Europe last weekend, it brought hurricane-force wind gusts, flooding 
rains, and a 1-meter storm surge topped by 8-meter high battering waves that overwhelmed sea walls in France, killing 
scores of people. Today, AIR Worldwide estimated the insured damage from the storm at $1.5 - $3 billion. Intense 
extratropical cyclones like Xynthia, with central pressures below 970 mb, make up less than 20% of all wintertime 
cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere, but cause the vast majority of the devastation and loss of life. The ten deadliest 
winter storms to hit Europe over the past 60 years all had minimum pressures lower than 970 mb. The situation is 
similar for North America, though the storms generally do not get as intense as their European counterparts (the four 
major Nor'easters this winter have had central pressures of 968, 969, 978, and 972 mb). It is important, then, to ask 
if these strongest of the strong storms are changing in frequency, and whether a future warmer world will have more or 
less of these storms.

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