Interesting People mailing list archives
Re Bill Perry Is Terrified. Why Aren't You?
From: "Dave Farber" <farber () gmail com>
Date: Sat, 7 Jan 2017 17:51:43 -0500
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From: Thomas Leavitt <thomleavitt () gmail com> Date: January 7, 2017 at 5:01:16 PM EST To: jthorn () astro indiana edu Cc: farber () gmail com Subject: Fwd: [IP] Re Bill Perry Is Terrified. Why Aren't You? Your comment highlights a rather terrifying aspect of the contemporary situation, but referenced issue seems more a symptom than a cause. My original question was "what triggered this sequencence of events" (including the one cited)? Has Russian behavior changed to such a degree that efforts in this area are no longer feasible? Has American policy in this respect come under control of a faction that is against continuing these efforts? Is this fallout from the situation in the Ukraine? Why are the war drums suddenly being pounded so hard, when, facially, the actual strategic and tactical balance remains overwhelmingly in our favor, at least from a pure "force projection capacity" standpoint? Looking at it pragmatically, from a conventional warfare standpoint, no other country has anywhere near the number of hardened combat veterans in active and recent service that the United States has (however costly acquiring that expertise has been). Russia and China's military and political establishments must be aware of how much of a disadvantage that alone creates, even discounting all other factors. "Green" combatants are at a huge disadvantage vs. hardened veterans. Why is our governing elite suddenly acting so threatened? I consider myself a relatively informed citizen, but have been unable to identify the triggering cause here, and that was the intent behind my somewhat plaintive complaint. Thomas Leavitt ---------- Forwarded message ---------- From: "Dave Farber" <farber () gmail com> Date: Jan 7, 2017 9:40 AM Subject: [IP] Re Bill Perry Is Terrified. Why Aren't You? To: "ip" <ip () listbox com> Cc: Begin forwarded message:From: Jonathan Thornburg <jthorn () astro indiana edu> Date: January 7, 2017 at 11:44:03 AM EST To: dave () farber net Subject: Re: [IP] Re Bill Perry Is Terrified. Why Aren't You? Someone (who, if I've unwrapped the nested quoting correctly, may have been Thomas Leavitt) asked:What has changed so fundamentally that we're now re-enmeshed in this lunacy? I'm baffled.One thing that's changed in the past year or so is that the decades-old cooperative effort between the USA & Russia to switch research reactors around the world to NOT use high-enriched uranium fuel, is now in slow mottion at best, with USA/Russia cooperation essentially frozen. (See, e.g., http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/01/ridding-research-reactors-highly-enriched-uranium-take-decades-longer-projected for more information.) There are still 74 known civilian research reactors around the world which use high-enriched uranium fuel, and many of these are poorly guarded against theft. If a terrorist group were to steal some high-enriched uranium fuel, they could have a decent chance of building a working kiloton-sized (= can destroy square kilometers of a city) gun-type nuclear bomb (probably built around an old artillery gun). (In contrast, if they were to steal plutonium, making that explode with more than truck-bomb force would be hard: that would require implosion, which takes a lot of engineering expertise). Killing 100K to 1M people with terrorist nuclear boms *probably* won't start a "major" nuclear war, but the chances aren't exactly zero, either.Archives | Modify Your Subscription | Unsubscribe Now
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- Re Bill Perry Is Terrified. Why Aren't You? Dave Farber (Jan 07)
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- Re Bill Perry Is Terrified. Why Aren't You? Dave Farber (Jan 07)
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- Re Bill Perry Is Terrified. Why Aren't You? Dave Farber (Jan 07)
- Re Bill Perry Is Terrified. Why Aren't You? Dave Farber (Jan 07)