There goes the Real America

["Dave Farber" <farber () gmail com>]

> Begin forwarded message:
>
> From: Dewayne Hendricks <dewayne () warpspeed com>
> Subject: [Dewayne-Net] There goes the Real America
> Date: July 3, 2017 at 6:42:37 PM EDT
> To: Multiple recipients of Dewayne-Net <dewayne-net () warpspeed com>
> Reply-To: dewayne-net () warpspeed com
>
> [Note:  This item comes from friend David Rosenthal.  DLH]
>
> There goes the Real America
> By Digby
> Jul 3 2017
> <http://digbysblog.blogspot.com/2017/07/there-goes-real-america.html 
> <http://digbysblog.blogspot.com/2017/07/there-goes-real-america.html>>
>
> Oh look, someone who got it right but nobody cares:
>  
> <http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/uw-professor-got-it-right-on-trump-so-why-is-he-being-ignored/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=article_left_1.1>
> Ask Google the question “who predicted Trump winning the election?” and you get 19.3 million results.
>
> Most are about professors with oddball prediction systems, or the rare pollster who got it right, or the liberal 
> filmmaker Michael Moore, who famously sent out a mass gut-level warning about Donald Trump’s appeal last summer.
>
> One name that doesn’t come up: Christopher Parker.
>
> “Nobody in the media has called me up and said ‘you were right,’ ” says Parker, a political-science professor at the 
> University of Washington for the past 11 years.
>
> Parker has his suspicions about why he’s been overlooked, which we’ll get to in a minute. But first: He correctly 
> foresaw in September 2015 that Trump would win the GOP nomination — eight months before Trump clinched it.
>
> Then, last September, Parker told anyone who would listen, which was not many, that Trump could well win the 
> presidency. And now, most important, new research shows Parker was more than just prescient about the outcome. He was 
> nearly alone in nailing why it would happen.
>
> “It’s what the data showed and what history would suggest, so I didn’t see it as some out-there guess,” Parker shrugs 
> now. “It seemed like a no-brainer to me.”
>
> On Monday researchers released the most comprehensive survey data yet aimed at understanding what actually went down 
> in Election 2016. The group includes academics but also right-leaning outlets such The Heritage Foundation and 
> left-leaners like the Center for American Progress.
>
> What’s different about the Voter Study Group is that it tracks the attitudes and votes of the same 8,000 adults since 
> before the 2012 election, and then throughout the 2016 election. So it’s like the nation’s largest, longest political 
> focus group.
>
> The story we’ve told ourselves — that working-class whites flocked to Trump due to job worries or free trade or 
> economic populism — is basically wrong, the research papers released this week suggest.
>
> They did flock to Trump. But the reason they did so in enough numbers for Trump to win wasn’t anxiety about the 
> economy. It was anxiety about Mexicans, Muslims and blacks.
> [snip]




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