Is 5G a Spectrum-eating Monster that Destroys Competition?

["Dave Farber" <farber () gmail com>]

Begin forwarded message:

> From: Dewayne Hendricks <dewayne () warpspeed com>
> Date: September 28, 2018 at 1:21:33 PM GMT+9
> To: Multiple recipients of Dewayne-Net <dewayne-net () warpspeed com>
> Subject: [Dewayne-Net] Is 5G a Spectrum-eating Monster that Destroys Competition?
> Reply-To: dewayne-net () warpspeed com
>
> Is 5G a Spectrum-eating Monster that Destroys Competition?
> By Fred Goldstein
> Jun 15 2018
> <https://www.techzone360.com/topics/techzone/articles/2018/06/15/438482-5g-spectrum-eating-monster-that-destroys-competition.htm>
>
> To hear the current FCC talk about it, 5G mobile service is the be-all and end-all of not only mobile communications, 
> but the answer to most of the country’s ills. The snake oil pitchmen of the 1800s were tyros compared to the claims 
> being made for 5G. Yet nobody even quite knows what 5G is! To be blunt, 5G simply seems to refer to anything that 
> comes after 4G, which is LTE. After all, 5 is the next number after 4.
>
> The key technological advance in 5G seems to be its ability to operate on multiple frequency bands at once, on any 
> and all spectrum above 600 MHz, including higher frequencies than those actually useful for mobility. It can thus 
> consume spectrum the way a black hole sucks in matter. But 5G isn’t, as the FCC members tweet, a race that the US has 
> to somehow “win” against China, lest uncertain horrors result.
>
> The likely real purpose of 5G is less obvious than its technology. 5G is more like a cult, a sacrificial cult that is 
> being designed to kill off what little competition is left in the telecom industry.
>
> The Aztecs were notorious for their vast use of human sacrifice, culminating in 1489's sacrifice of 20,000 prisoners 
> of war on the pyramids of Tenochtitlan. They did not see themselves as being particularly brutal, though. They 
> worshiped the sun god and thought that if they failed to continue human sacrifices, the sun would not rise in the 
> morning.
>
> Today the biggest carriers and their backers have a new sun god called 5G. But unlike the sun, we don't know who 
> really needs it. It’s based on a supplier-driven model, not a demand pull, given that 4G LTE has been both a 
> technical and market success, and continues to be enhanced. But the FCC knows that 5G needs a lot of spectrum. LOTS 
> of spectrum. So they're basically handing any and all available spectrum over to the big mobile carriers who are 
> promising "5G". It is a vast sacrifice of precious spectrum. The FCC seems to fear that if they fail to give more and 
> more spectrum over to whatever 5G may turn out to be, the US will somehow "fall behind" in a “race”, and maybe the 
> sun won’t shine any more. And to promote this kill-all-prisoners approach, they attribute preposterous miracles to 
> 5G, like saving energy, making self-driving vehicles practical and safe, and, like the original snake oil, curing 
> diseases.
>
> 5G, in other words, is buncombe. It is a mythical monster that is worshipped by killing off access to spectrum to all 
> except the big mobile carriers who can afford to pay top dollar at auction.
>
> There is precedent for this. In 1948, microwave transmission itself was new technology, and the television networks, 
> just starting up, wanted to use it to link their affiliates together. The FCC ruled instead that civilian use of the 
> microwave spectrum was limited to AT&T Long Lines, and the networks had to buy their connections from AT&T. It was a 
> high point for monopoly.
>
> In 1959, however, in its landmark Above 890 decision, the Commission authorized private microwave systems. Eventually 
> that led to at least some competition in the telecom sector, and may have been the hole in the dike that eventually 
> led to the breakup of the old AT&T and the birth of the public Internet. The existing private microwave spectrum is 
> now quite crowded in many places. Not only have fiber optics not replaced microwave, but the FCC’s deregulation of 
> the telecom incumbents, and market consolidation, have been making fiber services more expensive and less widely 
> available. Microwave gear, on the other hand, has become faster, better and cheaper (pick 3).
>
> Cellular mobility was originally predicated on the idea that capacity could be increased by reusing the same 
> frequencies over smaller areas – more cells. But it’s often cheaper to use more spectrum and fewer cells. And the 
> carriers are now promoting the use of cell phones to carry video, which uses tremendous amounts of capacity. They 
> want more spectrum so they can show even more TV to addicted small-screen viewers.
>
> Not coincidentally, the two biggest mobile carriers are also the two biggest wireline incumbents, who want to abandon 
> most of their wireline business. FiOS was last decade’s news. Verizon has begun to refer to high-speed wireless to 
> the home as “FiOS” too. It’s cheaper to build than fiber, after all. The wireless ISP community has proven that fixed 
> wireless it is very effective for Internet access, though that is mostly done in rural areas, and doesn’t carry 
> hundreds of TV channels. AT&T has likewise given up on expanding GigaPower as well as U-Verse. They will require some 
> additional spectrum. The FCC’s auction policy will allow the two of them to essentially buy it all up in order to 
> exclude competitors. Because 5G.
>
> And you thought the Aztec sun god was powerful. 5G is a mythical monster whose hunger for spectrum is insatiable, but 
> which its believers think must be satisfied lest the wireless sun stop rising.
>
> Or maybe it’s just an excuse to undo decades of competition and return the bulk of the Above 890 spectrum to the 
> descendants of the old Bell System.
>
> 5G was the stated reason why almost all of the lower millimeter wave spectrum, from 24 to 57 GHz, was not given over 
> to regular microwave licensing, on a point to point coordinated basis that ensures efficient use of the band by 
> anyone who needs it, including cellular backhaul. Instead, last year’s Spectrum Frontiers Order has the bulk of it 
> being auctioned off in large-scale exclusive geographic areas, as if it were a mobile band. Not that millimeter waves 
> work for mobility -- they don't. And they don’t go far – useful for a mile or two if absolutely nothing is in the 
> way, and they won’t penetrate walls or cars. But the mythical 5G monster is supposed to find a use for them.
>
> [snip]
>
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