Re: "2M today, 10M with no change in technology"? An informal survey.

[Jon Lewis <jlewis () lewis org>]

On Mon, 27 Aug 2007, David Conrad wrote:

> > Any reasonably valid way of predicting when we'll hit 244,000 routes in the 
> > default-free zone?
>
> Um?
>
> Real Soon Now?
...
> I must be missing something obvious (or should I be dusting off my unused Y2K 
> survival gear?)

Unlike Y2K, the end of the useful service life up the Sup2 can easily be 
pushed further away in time.

ASnum   NetsNow   NetsAggr        NetGain         % Gain        Description

Table   233651    151129          82522   35.3%         All ASes

AS4134          1337      339     998     74.6%         CHINANET-BACKBONE No.31,Jin-rong Street
AS18566         1020      101     919     90.1%         COVAD - Covad Communications Co.
AS4323          1315      437     878     66.8%         TWTC - Time Warner Telecom, Inc.
AS4755          1331      507     824     61.9%         VSNL-AS Videsh Sanchar Nigam Ltd. Autonomous System

There's really only 151129 routes you need to have "full routes".  Forcing 
just these top 4 slobs to aggregate reduces your global table by 3619 
routes.  Forcing the top 30 to aggregate frees up 15809 routes.

Of course there are other reasons to upgrade (better CPU, MPLS, IPv6, 
etc.), but if you can't upgrade, there are alternatives to stretch the old 
hardware.  It's not like it hasn't been done before.

----------------------------------------------------------------------
 Jon Lewis                   |  I route
 Senior Network Engineer     |  therefore you are
 Atlantic Net                |
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