Re: An Internet IPv6 Transition Plan

[Stephen Wilcox <steve.wilcox () packetrade com>]

On Wed, Jul 25, 2007 at 12:21:04PM +0100, michael.dillon () bt com wrote:
> > > Lack of IPv4 addresses will put the brakes on growth of the 
> > Internet 
> > > which will have a major impact on revenue growth. Before long stock 
> > > market analysts are going to be asking tough questions, and 
> > CEOs are 
> > > suddenly going to see the IPv6 light.
> >
> > What exactly will cease to grow tho? The 4 billion IPs that 
> > have always been around will continue to be. I think you 
> > overestimate the effects.. 
>
> I think you misunderstand the dictionary definition of growth. Yes, the
> IPv4 addresses, and much of the network infrastructure using them, will
> continue to be. But growth is about expansion, adding more, increasing
> the size and scope of the network. Few businesses are satisfied with
> collecting the same monthly recurring revenue from the same customer
> base. They either want to grow the customer base or grow the monthly
> revenue per customer. In the Internet business the main engine of
> revenue growth is growing the customer base by growing the network and
> adding more customers.

I dont think paypal's growth is tied to how many IPs they have... I think it relates to how many hits www.paypal.com 
receives and what their products look like. IP availability is unlikely to ever have more than the briefest mention in 
the boardroom and probably only in response to a news article quoting the end of the internet being imminent.

> > And as I've been saying 
> > for a while and Randy put in his presentation, supply and 
> > demand will simply cause the cost of having public IPs to go 
> > up from zero to something tiny - enough to see IPs being put 
> > back into the pool to those who really need them.
>
> And when your Internet supplier tells you that there will be a $10 per
> month increase in fees to cover the increase cost of IPv4 addresses,
> will you be happy? Will you start shopping for an IPv6 Internet
> supplier? When IPv6 Internet access is cheaper due to IPv4 address
> costs, then ISPs face a wholesale loss of their customer base. Of
> course, most business managers are smart enough to see this coming and
> resist paying for IPv4 addresses in the first place.

I'll sell you v6 today for 1/4 of the price of v4. Providing you understand theres not a lot out there.

I agree on your cost comparison, but consider what investment and costs are needed to be able to get to that point.

> this model of business. When the IPv4 shortage begins to bite, then you
> will see enormous amounts of money and effort put into IPv6 conversions
> (and new IPv6 startups who intend to unseat Google, Yahoo, etc.).

You will just see redeployment of existing budgets.. why would you pay more to see the same webpage be delivered just 
because of some techno mumbo jumbo

Any investor would be crazy to invest in a v6 competitor to Google.. enter a mature market using a new technology that 
99% of the planet cant get to? The only folks getting into v6 are the ones controlling the v4 market with enough spare 
R&D cash currently.

Steve