Re: Rate of growth on IPv6 not fast enough?

[Alexandre Snarskii <snar () snar spb ru>]

On Mon, Apr 19, 2010 at 06:56:43AM +0200, Mikael Abrahamsson wrote:
> On Mon, 19 Apr 2010, Franck Martin wrote:
>
> > Anybody has better projections? What's the plan?
>
> My guess is that end user access will be more and more NAT444:ed (CGN) 
> while at the same time end users will get more and more IPv6 access (of 
> all types), and over a period of time more and more of the p2p traffic 
> (VoIP, file transfers etc) will move to IPv6 because it'll stop working 
> over IPv4. When enough users have IPv6 access the server-based content 
> will be made reachable over v6 as well.
>
> The transition will take at least 5 years, I guess in 2015 we'll be 
> perhaps halfway there.

I suppose we will be here before 2015. We have at least one
segment where IPv6 CPE is mandated by network access providers - 
that's cellular networks. So, adding "Verizon mandates IPv6 for 
LTE phones"[1] and "Verizon expects to commercially launch its LTE 
4G network in up to 30 markets in 2010"[2] I can suggest that there 
will be significant increase of IPv6-enabled users in 2010-2011. 

May be this increase will be even significant enough to push content 
providers to dual-stack too...

[1]: http://www.circleid.com/posts/20090609_verizon_mandates_ipv6_support_for_next_gen_cell_phones/
[2]: http://www.wirelessweek.com/News-Verizon-LTE-Data-Calls-081709.aspx