Re: ipv4's last graph

[Geoff Huston <gih () apnic net>]

On 01/02/2011, at 7:02 PM, Randy Bush wrote:

> with the iana free pool run-out, i guess we won't be getting those nice
> graphs any more.  might we have one last one for the turnstiles?  :-)/2
>
> and would you mind doing the curves now for each of the five rirs?
> gotta give us all something to repeat endlessly on lists and in presos.

but of course.

http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/rir.jpg

This is a different graph - it is a probabilistic graph that shows the predicted month when the RIR will be down to its 
last /8 policy (whatever that policy may be), and the relative probability that the event will occur in that particular 
month.

The assumption behind this graph is that the barricades will go up across the regions and each region will work from 
its local address pools and service only its local client base, and that as each region gets to its last /8 policy the 
applicants will not transfer their demand to those regions where addresses are still available. Its not possible to 
quantify how (in)accurate this assumption may be, so beyond the prediction of the first exhaustion point (which is at 
this stage looking more likely to occur in July 2011 than not) the predictions for the other RIRs are highly uncertain.

Geoff