nanog mailing list archives
Re: Why no IPv6-only day (Was: Protocol-41 is not the only tunneling protocol)
From: Matthew Petach <mpetach () netflight com>
Date: Mon, 6 Jun 2011 16:41:36 -0700
On Mon, Jun 6, 2011 at 2:36 PM, Owen DeLong <owen () delong com> wrote:
On Jun 6, 2011, at 2:23 PM, Mark Andrews wrote:
...
IPv4 will never reach those figures. IPv6 isn't preferenced enough for that to happen and IPv6-only sites have methods of reaching IPv4 only sites (DS-Lite, NAT64/DNS64).I think you'll be surprised over time. Given the tendency of the internet to nearly double in size every 2 years or so, it only takes 7 cycles (about 15 years) for the existing network to become a single-digit percentage of the future network. Owen
Hm. With roughly 1B people on the internet today[0], 7 cycles of doubling would mean that in 15 years, we'd have 128B people on the internet? I strongly suspect the historical growth curve will *not* continue at that pace. Matt [0] http://www.internetworldstats.com/stats.htm [1] [1] I am strongly suspicious of their data, so my estimate lops their number in half. If you believe their data, in seven doublings, we'll be at 256B in 15 years. I find that number to be equally preposterous.
Current thread:
- Protocol-41 is not the only tunneling protocol (Re: Microsoft's participation in World IPv6 day), (continued)
- Protocol-41 is not the only tunneling protocol (Re: Microsoft's participation in World IPv6 day) Jeroen Massar (Jun 03)
- Message not available
- Re: Protocol-41 is not the only tunneling protocol (Re: Microsoft's participation in World IPv6 day) Tim Chown (Jun 03)
- Re: Protocol-41 is not the only tunneling protocol (Re: Microsoft's participation in World IPv6 day) Cameron Byrne (Jun 03)
- Re: Protocol-41 is not the only tunneling protocol (Re: Microsoft's participation in World IPv6 day) Jeroen Massar (Jun 03)
- Re: Protocol-41 is not the only tunneling protocol (Re: Microsoft's participation in World IPv6 day) Owen DeLong (Jun 03)
- Why no IPv6-only day (Was: Protocol-41 is not the only tunneling protocol) Jeroen Massar (Jun 04)
- Re: Why no IPv6-only day (Was: Protocol-41 is not the only tunneling protocol) Owen DeLong (Jun 04)
- Re: Why no IPv6-only day (Was: Protocol-41 is not the only tunneling protocol) Jason Fesler (Jun 06)
- Re: Why no IPv6-only day (Was: Protocol-41 is not the only tunneling protocol) Mark Andrews (Jun 06)
- Re: Why no IPv6-only day (Was: Protocol-41 is not the only tunneling protocol) Owen DeLong (Jun 06)
- Re: Why no IPv6-only day (Was: Protocol-41 is not the only tunneling protocol) Matthew Petach (Jun 06)
- Re: Why no IPv6-only day (Was: Protocol-41 is not the only tunneling protocol) Jérôme Nicolle (Jun 06)
- Re: Why no IPv6-only day (Was: Protocol-41 is not the only tunneling protocol) Owen DeLong (Jun 06)
- Re: Why no IPv6-only day (Was: Protocol-41 is not the only tunneling protocol) Jérôme Nicolle (Jun 06)
- Re: Why no IPv6-only day (Was: Protocol-41 is not the only tunneling protocol) Joly MacFie (Jun 07)
- Re: Why no IPv6-only day (Was: Protocol-41 is not the only tunneling protocol) Mark Andrews (Jun 06)
- Re: Why no IPv6-only day (Was: Protocol-41 is not the only tunneling protocol) Owen DeLong (Jun 06)
- Re: Why no IPv6-only day (Was: Protocol-41 is not the only tunneling protocol) Mark Andrews (Jun 06)
- Re: Why no IPv6-only day (Was: Protocol-41 is not the only tunneling protocol) Owen DeLong (Jun 07)
- Re: Why no IPv6-only day (Was: Protocol-41 is not the only tunneling protocol) Dale W. Carder (Jun 07)
- Re: Why no IPv6-only day (Was: Protocol-41 is not the only tunneling protocol) Mark Andrews (Jun 07)