Re: estimation of number of DFZ IPv4 routes at peak in the future

[Joel Jaeggli <joelja () bogus com>]

On 3/9/11 12:35 AM, Randy Bush wrote:
> > > i am more of a pessimist.  i suspect that there will be enough
> > > v4-only destinations out there that multi-homed enterprises fronting
> > > onto dual-stack backbones will announce teenie bits of v4 so they can
> > > nat64.
> > that teenie bit better be part of a larger aggregate that can reach at
> > least one of their runs home.
>
> the last serious satainc phylters died in 2001.  sales&marketing
> pressure.  when eyecandy.com is behind a /27, or your s&m folk
> sell to weenie.foo who wants you to announce their /26, it will be
> the end of the /24 barrier.
>
> > v6 being where the growth is it will get priority.
>
> we wish.  wanna start a pool on the growth of v6 announcements vs
> new multi-homed v4 announcements?

one of these curves is steeper than the other.

http://www.cidr-report.org/cgi-bin/plota?file=%2fvar%2fdata%2fbgp%2fv6%2fas2.0%2fbgp-active%2etxt&descr=Active%20BGP%20entries%20%28FIB%29&ylabel=Active%20BGP%20entries%20%28FIB%29&with=step

http://www.cidr-report.org/cgi-bin/plota?file=%2fvar%2fdata%2fbgp%2fas2.0%2fbgp-active%2etxt&descr=Active%20BGP%20entries%20%28FIB%29&ylabel=Active%20BGP%20entries%20%28FIB%29&with=step

If the slope on the second stays within some reasonable bounds of it's
current trajactory then everything's cool, you buy new routers on
schedule and the world moves on. The first one however will eventually
kill us.

The long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run
we are all dead - John Maynard Keynes


> randy