RE: Serious Juniper Hardware EoL Announcements

[Shawn L via NANOG <nanog () nanog org>]

With the current shortages and lead times, I almost feel like I did back in the beginning of my career --- 
 
Then it was "what can we do with what we can afford" now it's more like  "What can we do with what we have (or can 
actually get)"?
 
Shawn

-----Original Message-----
From: "Adam Thompson" <athompson () merlin mb ca>
Sent: Tuesday, June 14, 2022 12:36pm
To: "Mark Tinka" <mark@tinka.africa>, "nanog () nanog org" <nanog () nanog org>
Subject: RE: Serious Juniper Hardware EoL Announcements



[Not specific to the Juniper EoLs...]

I sort of agree with Mark:

I've been sampling a fairly wide variety of sources in various parts of the global supply chain, and my synthesis of 
what they're saying is that we probably won't *consistently* have the ready availability of "stuff" (both electronic 
and not) we had pre-pandemic, for the rest of my career (10-15yrs), and maybe not in the lifetimes of anyone reading 
this today, either.

Whether those sources are accurate, their interpretation is accurate, my synthesis is accurate, whether I'm listening 
to the right people in the first place... all debatable. I sure hope the above conclusion is wrong.

One possible upside: it might slow down the incessant upgrade hamster-wheel we're all running on? Imagine having enough 
time to do your job thoroughly and properly... Yes, I know I'm dreaming :-).


Adam Thompson
Consultant, Infrastructure Services
MERLIN
100 - 135 Innovation Drive
Winnipeg, MB R3T 6A8
(204) 977-6824 or 1-800-430-6404 (MB only)
https://www.merlin.mb.ca
Chat with me on Teams: athompson () merlin mb ca

> -----Original Message-----
> From: NANOG <nanog-bounces+athompson=merlin.mb.ca () nanog org> On Behalf
> Of Mark Tinka
> Sent: Tuesday, June 14, 2022 11:19 AM
> To: nanog () nanog org
> Subject: Re: Serious Juniper Hardware EoL Announcements
>
>
>
> On 6/14/22 18:06, JASON BOTHE via NANOG wrote:
>
> > Saw this coming a mile away. With chips and technology progressing
> despite ability to manufacture, I’m certain many are going to do this.
>
> All this will do is keep these boxes off the open market, which will
> simply bump up open market prices, with no incentive for the majority
> of
> folk to buy directly from the OEM.
>
> I suspect supply chain will improve within the next 12 months, but
> then
> regress and hit a massive crunch from around Q4'23 onward. How long
> for,
> I can't say...
>
> Mark.