FC: A reply from Hong Kong on SARS, China, and public panic

[Declan McCullagh <declan () well com>]

---

Date: Wed, 23 Apr 2003 00:19:33 +0800
To: declan () well com
From: John Bacon-Shone <johnbs () hku hk>
Subject: Re: FC: Replies to SARS and growth rates

At 10:55 AM -0400 4/22/03, Declan McCullagh wrote:
> [Back from an Easter vacation and catching up on CFP-week Politech 
> submissions... The folks below are right: Initially SARS looked like it 
> would grow exponentially but that has not turned out to be the case. A 
> graph resembles a straight line. Though with reports in the last 24 hours 
> that some crowded, financially-strapped hospitals in China are sending 
> away probable SARS patients to go back home in their communities, China 
> may be the exception. --Declan]

Dear Declan

You've been overtaken by events again, I'm afraid - China is finally 
admitting the full scale of infection in Beijing, at least, after sacking 2 
key officials! They also cut the national holiday drastically to reduce the 
spread into the countryside.

From a political perspective, it makes Hong Kong people feel positive that 
the new leadership in Beijing is a bit different to the previous group.

Hong Kong originally looked very serious because we had one housing estate 
with a mass outbreak which came from just one liver cancer patient sent 
home when infected and with diarrhea.  It appears that infection was via 
the faecal route as there was a flaw in the sewage system in the building 
the patient lived in.  Now that is under control, the official rate is down 
to about 20 cases per day (very manageable).

There is still concern that the drug treatment is not effective for some 
patients, including some people who are not old or unhealthy, but now that 
the genetic code for the virus has been cracked, hopefully more effective 
identification and treatments will follow.

The interesting question is whether there are many more unreported cases 
which do not present with the official (serious) symptom 
profile.  Ironically, this might be good, as it would increase the number 
of people with antibodies and hence reduce the risk of a full blown 
epidemic  There is some basis for this, as when they tested people living 
in the most affected housing estate, many of them did not show the full 
blown symptoms, yet were found to be infected.  It also means that 
arguments about what is the denominator for the death rate are moot at this 
point.  Frankly, any disease that kills off healthy adults is a problem and 
what is scary about this disease is that essentially nobody has antibodies 
to the virus yet and of course there is no vaccine.

Getting back on topic, it is fascinating how the virus has stimulated a 
strong immune response from civil society - people are realising that the 
government cannot do it all, so they better do something themselves, 
whether it is cleaning schools & old peoples homes or changing social 
behaviour (no more shaking hands here)!  Some of the schools re-opened 
today and the others re-open next week.  The panic is over here, but the 
worry will be here a while yet.

Regards

John

PS Thanks for the great list!
--
Dr. John Bacon-Shone, Director,  Social Sciences Research Centre
8/F Meng Wah Complex, The University of Hong Kong
Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong
Tel: 852-28592412 Fax: 852-28584327 E-mail: johnbs () hku hk




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