Re: Online predictive markets (IEEE Spectrum)

[Dave Farber <dave () farber net>]

I would like to point out that even well regulated markets have been and 
will be subject to miss-use.. Read any book on the Drexel/Miliken games of 
the 80s and you see how markets were 'fixed" and directed. What makes one 
think that a well funded adversary can not do the same -- especially if 
they save the manipulation for when it will have the greatest impact.

may be some reading of past misdeeds will help .

Dave

Also with todays long term research being two years, one finds research 
being "commercialized" before its shortcomings are understood.


> Date: Sat, 09 Aug 2003 08:53:20 -0400
> From: Steven Cherry <s.cherry () ieee org>
> Subject: Re: [IP] Online predictive markets (IEEE Spectrum)
>
>
> At 10:46 PM -0700 8/8/03, Ian Lance Taylor wrote:
> > As others have pointed out, the PAM presumes that everybody has the
> > same goals--essentially, to make money.  If something like PAM were
> > taken seriously by the police, a well funded terrorist group with a
> > bunch of sympathizers could and would spend money to distort the
> > market.  It wouldn't work every time, but it could sure work when
> > there was something big planned.  Of course if you know they are
> > terrorist sympathizers you discount their contributions--but then
> > terrorist sympathizers look an awful like the sort of people who might
> > actually know something and want to make a little cash on the side.
>
> Of course, commercial and gambling markets are subject to similar 
> manipulation.
>
> My understanding is that if a market is set up correctly, it's sometimes 
> (perhaps not always) possible to discern and filter out such manipulation. 
> Once the market was set up, it would be possible to simulate such activity 
> and test that. Let's remember that Darpa is a *research* agency and such 
> experiments are its reason for being.
>
>  Steven

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