Re Smart machines and the future of jobs

["Dave Farber" <farber () gmail com>]

Begin forwarded message:

> From: Bob Hinden <bob.hinden () gmail com>
> Date: October 11, 2016 at 2:29:59 PM EDT
> To: Dave Farber <dave () farber net>
> Cc: Bob Hinden <bob.hinden () gmail com>
> Subject: Re: [IP] Smart machines and the future of jobs
>
> Dave,
>
> For IP if you wish.
>
> I agree this is going to be a big societal issue going forward.  While I think it is going to take longer than this 
> article suggests, we will need to figure out how to deal with it.
>
> A good example from the article "Self-driving cars on the streets of Pittsburgh are on the verge of displacing Uber 
> drivers”.  I think it will be a long time before we have cars without drivers.  Assisted driving is not exactly 
> replacing any job.  Note, I am looking forward to real autonomous cars, I don’t expect it to happen anytime soon.
>
> We are going to see more and more automation and it’s going replace lots of jobs over time.  We will have to learn 
> how to restructure society to where less people are working.  The social impacts of this will be significant.  I 
> think some of the discontent we are seeing in the current US election cycle can be attributed to displacement of 
> large numbers of workers.  Even if, as one of the candidates proposes, we move manufacturing jobs come back to the 
> US, it’s clear to me that to be competitive these manufacturing plants will be largely automated.
>
> I am not worried it will all happen overnight, but I am worried that even as we see it starting to happen now and see 
> where it is going, we aren’t going to be able to make the societal changes in time.
>
> Perhaps a way to tell if we have arrived in this future, is when the Walmart greeters are replaced by robots….
>
> Bob
>
>
>
> > On Oct 10, 2016, at 8:04 AM, Dave Farber <farber () gmail com> wrote:
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > Begin forwarded message:
> >
> > > From: Hendricks Dewayne <dewayne () warpspeed com>
> > > Date: October 10, 2016 at 7:44:11 AM EDT
> > > To: Multiple recipients of Dewayne-Net <dewayne-net () warpspeed com>
> > > Subject: [Dewayne-Net] Smart machines and the future of jobs
> > > Reply-To: dewayne-net () warpspeed com
> > >
> > > [Note:  This item comes from reader Randall Head.  DLH]
> > >
> > > Smart machines and the future of jobs
> > > By Jeffrey D. Sachs
> > > Oct 10 2016
> > > <http://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2016/10/10/smart-machines-and-future-jobs/tPxRJvLpgw0W3SPrifpxTN/story.html>
> > >
> > > Since the early 1800s, several waves of technological change have transformed how we work and live. Each new 
> > > technological marvel — the steam engine, railroad, ocean steamship, telegraph, harvester, automobile, radio, 
> > > airplane, TV, computer, satellite, mobile phone, and now the Internet — has changed our home lives, communities, 
> > > workplaces, schools, and leisure time. For two centuries we’ve asked whether ever-more-powerful machines would free 
> > > us from drudgery or would instead enslave us.
> > >
> > > The question is becoming urgent. IBM’s Deep Blue and other chess-playing computers now routinely beat the world’s 
> > > chess champions. Google’s DeepMind defeated the European Go champion late last year. IBM’s Watson has gone from 
> > > becoming the world’s “Jeopardy’’ champion to becoming an expert medical diagnostician. Self-driving cars on the 
> > > streets of Pittsburgh are on the verge of displacing Uber drivers. And Baxter, the industrial robot, is carrying 
> > > out an expanding range of assembly-line and warehouse operations. Will the coming generations of smart machines 
> > > deliver us leisure and well-being or joblessness and falling wages?
> > >
> > > The answer to this question is not simple. There is neither a consensus nor deep understanding of the future of 
> > > jobs in an economy increasingly built on smart machines. The machines have gotten much smarter so fast that their 
> > > implications for the future of work, home life, schooling, and leisure are a matter of open speculation.
> > >
> > > We need to pursue policies so that the coming generation of smart machines works for us, and our well-being, rather 
> > > than humanity working for the machines and the few who control their operating systems.
> > >
> > > In a way, the economic effects of smarter machines are akin to the economic effects of international trade. Trade 
> > > expands the nation’s economic pie but also changes how the pie is divided. Smart machines do the same. In the past, 
> > > smarter machines have expanded the economic pie and shifted jobs and earnings away from low-skilled workers to 
> > > high-skilled workers. In the future, robots and artificial intelligence are likely to shift national income from 
> > > all types of workers toward capitalists and from the young to the old.
> > >
> > > CONSIDER ENGLAND’S Industrial Revolution in the first part of the 19th century, when James Watt’s steam engine, the 
> > > mechanization of textile production, and the railroad created the first industrial society. No doubt the economic 
> > > pie expanded remarkably. England’s national income roughly doubled from 1820 to 1860. Yet traditional weavers were 
> > > thrown out of their jobs; the Luddites, an early movement of English workers, tried to smash the machines that were 
> > > impoverishing them; and poet William Blake wrote of the “dark Satanic mills” of the new industrial society. An 
> > > enlarging economic pie, yes; a new prosperity shared by all, decidedly not.
> > >
> > > Looking back at two centuries of more and more powerful machines (and the accompanying technologies and systems to 
> > > operate them), we can see one overarching truth: Technological advances made the society much richer but also 
> > > continually reshuffled the winners and losers. Similarly, one overarching pattern was repeatedly replayed. The 
> > > march of technology has favored those with more education and training. Smart machines require well-trained 
> > > specialists to operate them. An expanded economic pie favors those with managerial and professional skills who can 
> > > navigate the complexities of finance, administration, management, and technological systems.
> > >
> > > Overall, better machines caused national income to soar and the man-hours spent in hard physical labor to decline 
> > > markedly. Seventy-hour workweeks in 1870 have become 35-hour workweeks today. An average of around six years of 
> > > schooling has become an average of 17 years. With increasing longevity, most workers can now look forward to a 
> > > decade or more of retirement years, an idea simply unimaginable in the late 19th century. It’s amazing to reflect 
> > > that for Americans 15 years and over, the average time at work each day is now just 3 hours 11 minutes. Those at 
> > > work average 7 hours and 34 minutes, but only 42.1 percent of Americans 15 and over are at work on an average day. 
> > > The rest of the time, other than sleep and personal care, is taken up with schooling, retirement, caring for 
> > > children, leisure and sports, shopping, and household activities.
> > >
> > > [snip]
> > >
> > > Dewayne-Net RSS Feed: <http://dewaynenet.wordpress.com/feed/>
> > Archives  | Modify Your Subscription | Unsubscribe Now



-------------------------------------------
Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/247/=now
RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/247/18849915-ae8fa580
Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=18849915&id_secret=18849915-aa268125
Unsubscribe Now: 
https://www.listbox.com/unsubscribe/?member_id=18849915&id_secret=18849915-32545cb4&post_id=20161011150127:1A7D4728-8FE5-11E6-8EBA-ED75509B4741
Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com