nanog mailing list archives
Re: An Internet IPv6 Transition Plan
From: Stephen Wilcox <steve.wilcox () packetrade com>
Date: Wed, 25 Jul 2007 12:30:27 +0100
On Wed, Jul 25, 2007 at 07:14:49AM -0400, John Curran wrote:
At 11:52 AM +0100 7/25/07, Stephen Wilcox wrote:On Tue, Jul 24, 2007 at 09:34:01PM +0100, michael.dillon () bt com wrote:However, what I'm trying to understand is why the motivation to rapidly go from v4 to v6 only? What are the factors I'm missing in operating v4/v6 combined for some time?Growth. Lack of IPv4 addresses will put the brakes on growth of the Internet which will have a major impact on revenue growth. Before long stock market analysts are going to be asking tough questions, and CEOs are suddenly going to see the IPv6 light.What exactly will cease to grow tho? The 4 billion IPs that have always been around will continue to be. I think you overestimate the effects.. All the existing big businesses can operate with what they already have, Google and Yahoo are not going to face any sort of crisis for the foreseeable future. And as I've been saying for a while and Randy put in his presentation, supply and demand will simply cause the cost of having public IPs to go up from zero to something tiny - enough to see IPs being put back into the pool to those who really need them.Steve - Putting them back into circulation doesn't work unless its done in very large chucks to major ISPs. If this isn't the model followed, then we will see a lot more routes for the equivalent number of new customers. People complaining about the ability to carry both IPv6 and IPv4 routing need to think carefully about how long we'll actually last if the ISP's are injecting thousands of unaggregatable routes from recovered address space each day. Additionally, the run rate for IPv4 usage approximates 10 /8 equivalents per year and increasing. Even given great legacy recovery, you've only gained a few more years and then still have to face the problem.
Hi John, I fully agree on that.. but I am disagreeing as to the timescales. There is some opinion that when IANA hands out the last of its IP blocks things will change overnight, and I dont see any reason for that to be the case. I think there are a lot of IPs currently allocated to ISPs but as yet unassigned to customers, and I think there will be a lot of policy changes to make more efficient use of the space that is already out there - I specifically think that will come from ISPs reusing IPs and setting costs that ensure they continually have IPs available to customers willing to pay for them. I think the combined effect of these things means - we will not be running into a wall at any time - availability of IPs will slowly decrease over time (as cost slowly increases) - adoption of NAT and v6 will be an ongoing trend with no sudden increase This means no end of the world as we know it, and no overnight adoption of new technology.. just business as usual in an evolving environment. Steve
Current thread:
- Re: An Internet IPv6 Transition Plan, (continued)
- Re: An Internet IPv6 Transition Plan Chad Oleary (Jul 24)
- RE: An Internet IPv6 Transition Plan Durand, Alain (Jul 24)
- An Internet IPv6 Transition Plan Chad Oleary (Jul 24)
- Message not available
- Re: An Internet IPv6 Transition Plan James R. Cutler (Jul 24)
- Re: An Internet IPv6 Transition Plan David Freedman (Jul 26)
- Re: An Internet IPv6 Transition Plan David Barak (Jul 26)
- RE: An Internet IPv6 Transition Plan Durand, Alain (Jul 24)
- Re: An Internet IPv6 Transition Plan Chad Oleary (Jul 24)
- RE: An Internet IPv6 Transition Plan michael.dillon (Jul 24)
- RE: An Internet IPv6 Transition Plan Barry Shein (Jul 25)
- Re: An Internet IPv6 Transition Plan Stephen Wilcox (Jul 25)
- Re: An Internet IPv6 Transition Plan John Curran (Jul 25)
- Re: An Internet IPv6 Transition Plan Stephen Wilcox (Jul 25)
- Re: An Internet IPv6 Transition Plan John Curran (Jul 25)
- Re: An Internet IPv6 Transition Plan Stephen Wilcox (Jul 25)
- Re: An Internet IPv6 Transition Plan John Curran (Jul 25)
- Re: An Internet IPv6 Transition Plan Stephen Wilcox (Jul 25)
- Re: An Internet IPv6 Transition Plan JORDI PALET MARTINEZ (Jul 25)
- Re: An Internet IPv6 Transition Plan John Curran (Jul 25)
- Re: An Internet IPv6 Transition Plan Leo Vegoda (Jul 25)
- Re: An Internet IPv6 Transition Plan Iljitsch van Beijnum (Jul 25)
- Re: An Internet IPv6 Transition Plan Stephen Wilcox (Jul 26)
- Re: An Internet IPv6 Transition Plan John Curran (Jul 26)