Re: "It's the end of the world as we know it" -- REM

[Lee Howard <Lee () asgard org>]

On 4/23/13 7:44 PM, "Geoff Huston" <gih () apnic net> wrote:

> On 24/04/2013, at 8:10 AM, Andrew Latham <lathama () gmail com> wrote:
>
> > On Tue, Apr 23, 2013 at 5:41 PM, Valdis Kletnieks
> > <Valdis.Kletnieks () vt edu> wrote:
> > > I didn't see any mention of this Tony Hain paper:
> > >
> > > http://tndh.net/~tony/ietf/ARIN-runout-projection.pdf
> > >
> > > ARIN predicted to run out of IP space to allocate in August this year.
> > >
> > > Are you ready?
>
> The prediction of runout business is extremely hard. All of these
> predictions are based on the basic premise that what happened yesterday
> will most likely happen tomorrow.

If I were any good at predicting things, I would use my powers for evil.
Your model and Tony's differ largely on how many "yesterdays" are
considered; and, Tony's new model weights yesterday more heavily than
yesteryear, on the guess that recent history is more predictive than
distant past history.

Meanwhile. . . 


> actors. In the address world it was observed that less than 1% (its
> closer to around 0.5%)  individual allocations account for more than half
> of the number of allocated addresses. This becomes a problem in the
> predictive models, as the dominant factor in address consumption is now
> the actions of some 20 or so very large entities.

Fortunately, very large companies are slow to change.
Also, John Curran said during discussion at PPML of extra-regional
allocations: "At the current rate, this is the majority of allocations
we're making."  So, a different 0.5% than most people are probably
thinking of.

I believe he said this growth trend "Leads to a runout Q4-2013 or Q1-2014,
with certainty." 




> Following a single largish allocation in early 2012 we've seen the ARIN
> address consumption rate increase somewhat, and the average rate of
> address consumption is currently around 2M addresses per month. If this
> rate of address consumption continues, the ARIN will reach its last /8 in
> early 2014, and if this rate persists, then the registry will exhaust its
> pool around the end of that year, or early 2015.


Sorry, is this to say, "If this rate of consumption continues" or "If this
rate of increase continues"?  I believe the difference is that several
organizations are rapidly progressing through ARIN slow start, using their
space in significantly less than three months.


> However, personally I find it a little hard to place a high probability
> on Tony's projected exhaustion date of August this year. I also have to
> qualify that by noting that while I think that a runout of the remaining
> 40 M addresses within 4 months is improbable, its by no means impossible.
> If we saw a re-run of the address consumption rates that ARIN experienced
> in 2010, then it's not outside the bounds of plausibility that ARIN will
> be handing out its last address later this year.

It largely depends on whether the new organizations getting address space
hit a growth ceiling (or plateau).  If they do so soon, we return to the
nearly linear Potaroo Projection.  If they continue to grow (especially if
they represent a new business model and others follow suit) then the Hain
Hypothesis holds.

Lee


> thanks,
>
> Geoff