Re: Routed optical networks

[Dave Taht <dave.taht () gmail com>]

On Thu, May 11, 2023 at 4:25 AM Vasilenko Eduard
<vasilenko.eduard () huawei com> wrote:
> I did investigate traffic for every Carrier while dealing with it as a consultant (repeated many dozens of times).
>
> I have seen over a decade how traffic growth dropped year-over-year (from 60% to 25% in 2019 when I dropped this 
> activity in 2020 – covid blocked travel).

There was a covid spike, but the trendline appeared to be down to 5%
projected this year in a british study for fixed residential that I
cannot find right now.

> Sometimes I talk to old connections and they confirm that it is even less now.
>
> In rear cases, It is typically possible to find this information on the public Internet (I remember the case when 
> Google disclosed traffic for Pakistan at the conference with the explanation that 30% is attributed to new 
> subscribers, and an additional +30% is to more heavy content per subscriber).
>
> But mostly, it was confidential information from a discussion with Carriers – they all know very well their traffic 
> growth.
>
> In general, traffic stat is pretty confidential. I did not have the motivation to aggregate it.
>
>
>
> Sandvine is not representative of global traffic because DPI is installed mostly for Mobiles. But Mobile subscriber 
> is 10x less than fixed on traffic – it is not the biggest source. Moreover, Mobiles would look better growing because 
> the limiting factor was on technology (5G proposed more than 4G, 4G proposed much more than 3G) – it would probably 
> would less disruptive in the future.
>
> Fixed Carriers do not pay DPI premiums. And rarely share their traffic publicly. Sandvine could not see it.
>
>
>
> VNI is claiming so many things. Please show where exactly they show traffic growth (I am not interested in prediction 
> speculations). Is it possible to understand CAGR for the 5 last years? Is it declining or growing? (traffic itself is 
> for sure still growing)
>
>
>
> Of course, the disruption could come at any year and add a new S-curve (Metaverse?). But disruption is by definition 
> not predictable.
>
>
>
> PS: Everything above and below in this thread is just my personal opinion.
>
>
>
> Eduard
>
> From: Etienne-Victor Depasquale [mailto:edepa () ieee org]
> Sent: Thursday, May 11, 2023 12:48 PM
> To: Vasilenko Eduard <vasilenko.eduard () huawei com>
> Cc: Dave Taht <dave.taht () gmail com>; Phil Bedard <bedard.phil () gmail com>; NANOG <nanog () nanog org>
> Subject: Re: Routed optical networks
>
>
>
> Eduard, academics cite the VNI (and the Sandvine Global reports).
>
>
>
> Do you know of alternative sources that show traffic growth data you're more comfortable with?
>
>
>
> Cheers,
>
>
>
> Etienne
>
>
>
> On Thu, May 11, 2023 at 9:34 AM Vasilenko Eduard <vasilenko.eduard () huawei com> wrote:
>
> But it is speculation, not a trend yet.
>
> I remember 10y ago every presentation started from the claim that 100B of IoT would drive XXX traffic. It did not 
> happen.
>
> Now we see presentations that AI would be talking to AI that generates YYYY traffic.
>
> Maybe some technology would push traffic next S-curve, maybe not. It is still speculation.
>
>
>
> The traffic growth was stimulated (despite all VNIs) by 1) new subscribers, 2) video quality for subscribers. Nothing 
> else yet.
>
> It is almost finished for both trends. We are close to the plateau of these S-curves.
>
> For some years (2013-2020) I was carefully looking at numbers for many countries: it was always possible to split 
> CAGR for these 2 components. The video part was extremely consistent between countries. The subscriber part was 100% 
> proportional to subscriber CAGR.
>
> Everything else up to now was “marketing” to say it mildly.
>
>
>
> Reminder: nothing in nature could grow indefinitely. The limit always exists. It is only a question of when.
>
>
>
> PS: Of course, marketing people could draw you any traffic growth – it depends just on the marketing budget.
>
>
>
> Eduard
>
> From: Dave Taht [mailto:dave.taht () gmail com]
> Sent: Tuesday, May 9, 2023 11:41 PM
> To: Vasilenko Eduard <vasilenko.eduard () huawei com>
> Cc: Phil Bedard <bedard.phil () gmail com>; Etienne-Victor Depasquale <edepa () ieee org>; NANOG <nanog () nanog org>
> Subject: Re: Routed optical networks
>
>
>
> Up until this moment I was feeling that my take on the decline of traffic growth was somewhat isolated, in that I 
> have long felt that we are nearing the top of the S curve of the data we humans can create and consume. About the 
> only source of future traffic growth I can think of comes from getting more humans online, and that is a mere another 
> doubling.
>
>
>
> On the other hand, predictions such as 640k should be enough for everyone did not pan out.
>
>
>
> On the gripping hand, there has been an explosion of LLM stuff of late, with enormous models being widely distributed 
> in just the past month:
>
>
>
> https://lwn.net/Articles/930939/
>
>
>
> Could the AIs takeoff lead to a resumption of traffic growth? I still don´t think so...
>
>
>
>
>
> On Thu, May 4, 2023 at 10:59 PM Vasilenko Eduard via NANOG <nanog () nanog org> wrote:
>
> Disclaimer: Metaverse has not changed Metro traffic yet. Then …
>
>
>
> I am puzzled when people talk about 400GE and Tbps in the Mero context.
>
> For historical reasons, Metro is still about 2*2*10GE (one “2” for redundancy, another “2” for capacity) in the 
> majority of cases worldwide.
>
> How many BRASes serve more than 40000/1.5=27k users in the busy hour?
>
> It means that 50GE is the best interface now for the majority of cases. 2*50GE=100Gbps is good room for growth.
>
> Of course, exceptions could be. I know BRAS that handles 86k subscribers (do not recommend anybody to push the limits 
> – it was so painful).
>
>
>
> We have just 2 eyes and look at video content about 22h per week (on average). Our eyes do not permit us to see 
> resolution better than particular for chosen distance (4k for typical TV, HD for smartphones, and so on). Color depth 
> 10bits is enough for the majority, 12bits is sure enough for everybody. 120 frames/sec is enough for everybody. It 
> would never change – it is our genetics.
>
> Fortunately for Carriers, the traffic has a limit. You have probably seen that every year traffic growth % is 
> decreasing. The Internet is stabilizing and approaching the plateau.
>
> How much growth is still awaiting us? 1.5? 1.4? It needs separate research. The result would be tailored for whom 
> would pay for the research.
>
> IMHO: It is not mandatory that 100GE would become massive in the metro. (I know that 100GE is already massive in the 
> DC CLOS)
>
>
>
> Additionally, who would pay for this traffic growth? It also limits traffic at some point.
>
> I hope it would happen after we would get our 22h/4k/12bit/120hz.
>
>
>
> Now, you could argue that Metaverse would jump and multiply traffic by an additional 2x or 3x. Then 400GE may be 
> needed.
>
> Sorry, but it is speculation yet. It is not a trend like the current (declining) traffic growth.
>
>
>
> Ed/
>
> From: NANOG [mailto:nanog-bounces+vasilenko.eduard=huawei.com () nanog org] On Behalf Of Phil Bedard
> Sent: Thursday, May 4, 2023 8:32 PM
> To: Etienne-Victor Depasquale <edepa () ieee org>; NANOG <nanog () nanog org>
> Subject: Re: Routed optical networks
>
>
>
> It’s not necessarily metro specific although the metro networks could lend themselves to overall optimizations.
>
>
>
> The adoption of ZR/ZR+ IPoWDM currently somewhat corresponds with your adoption of 400G since today they require a 
> QDD port.   There are 100G QDD ports but that’s not all that popular yet.   Of course there is work to do something 
> similar in QSFP28 if the power can be reduced to what is supported by an existing QSFP28 port in most devices.   In 
> larger networks with higher speed requirements and moving to 400G with QDD, using the DCO optics for connecting 
> routers is kind of a no-brainer vs. a traditional muxponder.   Whether that’s over a ROADM based optical network or 
> not, especially at metro/regional distances.
>
>
>
> There are very large deployments of IPoDWDM over passive DWDM or dark fiber for access and aggregation networks where 
> the aggregate required bandwidth doesn’t exceed the capabilities of those optics.  It’s been done at 10G for many 
> years.  With the advent of pluggable EDFA amplifiers, you can even build links up to 120km* (perfect dark fiber)  
> carrying tens of terabits of traffic without any additional active optical equipment.
>
>
>
> It’s my personal opinion we aren’t to the days yet of where we can simply build an all packet network with no 
> photonic switching that carries all services, but eventually (random # of years) it gets there for many networks.  
> There are also always going to be high performance applications for transponders where pluggable optics aren’t a good 
> fit.
>
>
>
> Carrying high speed private line/wavelength type services as well is a different topic than interconnecting IP 
> devices.
>
>
>
> Thanks,
>
> Phil
>
>
>
>
>
> From: NANOG <nanog-bounces+bedard.phil=gmail.com () nanog org> on behalf of Etienne-Victor Depasquale via NANOG 
> <nanog () nanog org>
> Date: Monday, May 1, 2023 at 2:30 PM
> To: NANOG <nanog () nanog org>
> Subject: Routed optical networks
>
> Hello folks,
>
>
>
> Simple question: does "routed optical networks" have a clear meaning in the metro area context, or not?
>
>
>
> Put differently: does it call to mind a well-defined stack of technologies in the control and data planes of 
> metro-area networks?
>
>
>
> I'm asking because I'm having some thoughts about the clarity of this term, in the process of carrying out a 
> qualitative survey of the results of the metro-area networks survey.
>
>
>
> Cheers,
>
>
>
> Etienne
>
>
>
> --
>
> Ing. Etienne-Victor Depasquale
> Assistant Lecturer
> Department of Communications & Computer Engineering
> Faculty of Information & Communication Technology
> University of Malta
>
> Web. https://www.um.edu.mt/profile/etiennedepasquale
>
>
>
>
> --
>
> Podcast: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7058793910227111937/
>
> Dave Täht CSO, LibreQos
>
>
>
>
> --
>
> Ing. Etienne-Victor Depasquale
> Assistant Lecturer
> Department of Communications & Computer Engineering
> Faculty of Information & Communication Technology
> University of Malta
>
> Web. https://www.um.edu.mt/profile/etiennedepasquale



-- 
Podcast: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7058793910227111937/
Dave Täht CSO, LibreQos