Re: Rita and panic gas buying

[Paul Vixie <paul () vix com>]

well, so, i live off-road and i have a ranch, so my SUV-looking vehicle is
actually a farm truck with lots of seats.  i regularly (that is, daily) fill
all seven seats with children and fill the cargo area with backpacks and drive
a carpool to the nearest "middle school" (30 minutes or so).  the vehicle runs
on diesel #2, which is USD $3.17 today.  that's USD ~$135.00 to fill the tank,
which i do about three times per month on average, more if i have to haul a
lot of concrete or other building materials for a job.

that means my fuel cost is very close to my monthly "car payment".

i don't mind, because i chose this lifestyle, and i can afford it.

but if the world's oil costs go up 5X as many analysts recommend, it would
change the way all of us who live outside major cities live.  i'm not sure
the change would be good for the world.  i know it wouldn't be good for me.

so, hopefully another solution will be found.

interestingly, the only reason fuel is so cheap is because OPEC's stated
policy is "don't charge what the market will actually bear, because that
would just make the industrialized world alternative energy sources faster."
now that we're past the peak oil point, and we're cutting deeply and quickly
into what a lot of geologists say is the second half of the crust's oil
deposits (which are a lot harder and more expensive to get to), i think we
can expect a big change in OPEC's policy.  in other words if there's not
going to be enough oil to run the world at the current pace beyond ~2076,
and there will be so much CO2 in the atmosphere that none of us will be
able to find dry land or fresh water by ~2072, then it's safe to bet that
the industrialized world will find alternative energy sources by ~2070,
and that they will have a hard time doing this, and so there's not much
reason to keep the prices artificially low for more than the next decade
and maybe not even that long.

my children will live in interesting times.

re:

# From: "Rob, grandpa of Ryan, Trevor, Devon & Hannah" <rslade () sprint ca>
# Organization: Vancouver Institute for Research into User 
# To: Gadi Evron <ge () linuxbox org>, funsec () linuxbox org
# Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2005 11:32:32 -0800
# Subject: Re: [funsec] Rita and panic gas buying
# X-mailer: Pegasus Mail for Win32 (v3.12c)
# Reply-To: rslade () sprint ca
# Sender: funsec-bounces () linuxbox org
# 
# Date sent:            Thu, 22 Sep 2005 20:43:50 +0200
# From:                 Gadi Evron <ge () linuxbox org>
# 
# > Actually, some would say this is good for Global Economy. The US is fat 
# > on oil with rather low prices (that you bitch about anyway). US and 
# > China are the two biggest consumers of oil in the world and both should 
# > probably curve their enthusiasm. At the US by getting gas prices higher.
# > 
# > This will get me flames, but it's what every analyst out there would 
# > agree on. 
# 
# I agree that you'll probably get some flames, but you're right.
# 
# I find it highly ironic that those on the "right" side of the socio-political spectrum 
# are always lauding the "invisible hand of the market"--until they get hit in the 
# pocketbook.  North American farmers tend to be a fairly independent, 
# "government hands off" group--until you talk about ending farm subsidies.  Not to 
# knock people involved in farming: they are hardworking and generally very able.  
# And lots of other groups do exactly the same thing.  Everybody seems to have a 
# blind spot to the factors that (sometimes unfairly) support them.
# 
# Canadian oil prices are somewhat above those in the US (despite the fact that we 
# *export* oil to the US!), but still relatively low compared to the rest of the world. 
#  People around here have been screaming at the recent increases.  I have to drive 
# more than most, but I'd still be willing to get gas prices to realistic world levels 
# here.  (Might get some of the *%^*&^ SUVs off the road.)
# 
# ======================  (quote inserted randomly by Pegasus Mailer)
# rslade () vcn bc ca      slade () victoria tc ca      rslade () sun soci niu edu
#                That thought got run over as it was crossing my mind.
# http://victoria.tc.ca/techrev    or    http://sun.soci.niu.edu/~rslade
# 
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